Our First-Tier Candidates:
Matthew Doheny - Doheny is a 39 year-old lawyer/financial consultant, living in the Watertown/Alexandria Bay region, who has a strong base of local support in Jefferson County. Doheny is a top-tier candidate primarily because of his own personal wealth and rumored ability to raise substantial sums of money to fuel his potential candidacy. Upon graduating from Cornell Law School Doheny took a job with a law firm in the Syracuse area and then a few legal and financial positions in New York City. Having tested the political waters in the summer of 2009 Republican selection process, Doheny raised eyebrows at the various regional meetings as one of the top five presenters, who focused his remarks on fixing the economy and his financial experience in making businesses succeed. We are told by several reports that Doheny is not the type who is bothered by critics who say he is a City Man so watch for him to make a more aggressive outreach to the GOP establishment in early 2010 as he begins to build a staff and rake in serious early money that is likely to scare off some of the competition and garner some positive local media coverage. This past December we saw Doheny pull together a small fundraising event that drew nearly 100 people from Jefferson and St. Lawrence County at the Italian-American Club in Watertown.
Douglas Hoffman - Hoffman is an accountant and small business owner from Lake Placid, NY. Hoffman maintains that he owns and runs several offices spread out across the 23rd district and that he knows the voters concerns on jobs and the economy. Hoffman, the 2009 Conservative Party nominee, completely shocked the political world both locally and nationally when he politically cut Dede Scozzafava out by the knees in the fall of 2009. After Scozzafava was picked as the Republican nominee, Hoffman quickly made an alliance with Mike Long and the NYS Conservative Party to run as a third-party candidate, painting Scozzafava as a far left-wing candidate who was out-of-touch with the grassroots Republican base of the district. After gaining dozens of prominent endorsements from people like Fred Thompson, Sarah Palin, Dick Armey, the Club for Growth, several other outside interest groups and forcing Scozzafava to withdraw from the race, Hoffman came within about 3,000 votes of actually winning the seat, one of the best third-party challenges in US political history. Hoffman has yet to make a public announcement of his intentions for 2010 but most political pundits believe he will enter the race in February, March, or April of this year. According to the FEC, Hoffman has close to $300,000 on hand to spend in the Republican primary should he chose to run. To learn more visit Hoffman's campaign website.
Our Second-Tier Candidates:
Paul Maroun - Maroun is a well-known Franklin County Legislator from Tupper Lake who was also a potential candidate in the summer of 2009. Maroun frequently cites his nearly four decades of government experience on various levels and is seen as a conservative and a very safe choice based on his experience and credentials. With a law degree, prior military experience and having worked for former State Senator Ronald Stafford and current State Senator Elizabeth "Betty" Little, he maintains constant communication with local officials in the eastern end of the district and especially in Clinton and Franklin Counties. However, there are also rumors that he may challenge incumbent Assemblywoman Janet Duprey in 2010 or that Maroun will sit out this round of politics all-together. Drawbacks are that Maroun may be too old to run an aggressive race across a large rural district, that he lives in the eastern part of the district that lacks the population base and lingering questions about how much money he could raise.
Dede Scozzafava - You can check out Wikipedia for Scozzafava's full profile. Her listing is for another time and another blog as we do not believe she will throw her hat into the ring in 2010 after having dropped out of the race the weekend before the 2009 special election against Douglas Hoffman and the ultimate victor, now Democratic Congressman William Owens. One thing for sure is that you can't ever count Dede Scozzafava out of anything. She will likely make an impact on the race for NY-23 in some way, shape or form whether you like it or not. Stay tuned for her voice her opinions in the media as developments unfold. To learn more visit Dede's Assembly website.
Joshua Lynch - Lynch, from Waddington, is a young US Senate Aide who has close contacts with US Senators Sam Brownback and John McCain. A self-described conservative, Lynch was seen by many in 2009 as the surprise candidate for his communication skills and his pragmatic message: prosperity for rural New York, emphasis on job growth and solutions to out-migration of young people from the district. Without significant financial seed money Lynch would likely not be able to make a serious run for NY-23 in 2010. To our knowledge he has not made any significant moves to run in 2010 yet, but look out for him in the future if he decides to continue with upstate politics. According to some Jefferson and St. Lawrence County contacts few young politicos have the national contacts that Lynch has made having worked on three presidential campaigns before the age of 25.
William Barclay - Rumor has it that the National Republican Congressional Committee is looking for an elected official to run for Congress in NY-23. While NYS Assemblyman Barclay may have lost a bitter contest against now State Senator Darrel Aubertine for the 48th Senate District in 2008, we can't necessarily count him out this year against Bill Owens. The Barclay family has money, contacts and ambition, not to mention a very large gap to fill - no other top-tier incumbent official besides State Senators Little or Griffo are likely to even consider making a bid for the seat - creating a significant opening for Barclay to make his case on legislative experience. Some speculate that the Republican aisle of the NYS Senate is on lock-down and that incumbents are being forced against running for federal office because of the chamber's narrow Democrat partisan control. The Assembly is more open, but Barclay has signaled in the past that he is not up for running for any federal position because his two young sons are currently in elementary school and he has other family obligations. Barclay was quoted this past July as saying he feels as though, "there is much more to do in the Assembly and look forward to continuing my work to change Albany." To learn more see Barclay's Assembly website.
Other possible, but very unlikely, candidates include: State Senator Joseph Griffo, State Senator Elizabeth "Betty" Little and Plattsburg Mayor Donald Kasprzak. If there is anyone missing from this list please place a note in the comments section and we will add them on the front page.
Look at Doheny's "outside" money that should set everyone's hair on fire... nearly $300k outside of NY or in NYC... that is a problem.
ReplyDeleteTo be fair if that's possible in this day and age of rapid fire blogs; remarks that border on the abuse of others for their views and for substance; nasty name calling; and, everyone’s fav: opinions taking center stage over facts or the truth, let me say: We need to measure Owens and his outside money, too.
ReplyDeletee.g., His PAC money: only $5,000 is from within the district with 7 zip codes; but, the other nearly $420,000 is from nearly 300 outside zip codes...
This is very concerning to me and it should be to everyone...
Big money buys seats and thus access and thus power - think about it in those terms.
I strongly believe we need to stop it now. That is if people really want change they say they do.
Take the big outside money out and watch more of them stay home with their families... let's run on ideas not "who has the most money." Otherwise only those with money will represent us. Then whose interests do they really represent?
It is something to seriously think about it.
No kidding Doheny raised outside money - it was before the nomination. Do you people know how politics works??? Because the nomination process was not a primary and the decision was to be made by county chairs there was no point in advertising to the district voters, thus none of the general voting public knew much about him since he was a political newcomer. If he had won the nomination, he would have launched a media campaign to introduce himself to the voters and that is when the local money would have have started to come in, but it was just too early. The remarkable thing was that he was able to generate that much money before any serious marketing campaign! Everyone knows it takes money to win and if this guy can get money so early in the game I am certainly not going to hold it against him. I think the real thing people should focus on is the recent fundraising event he held in December. I personally was surprised by the timing - right before Christmas when everyone is feeling a bit cash poor and right after a very tiring special election, yet the guy supposedly attracted anywhere from 100-150 people (media reports vary)...and all local people! Apparently it was one of the best attended fundraising events ever held in the district by any candidate. That is a better test of the local interest in Doheny. The pre-nomination donations to his campaign simply reflect his ability to generate funds based on his pre-politics reputation alone. That is pretty impressive. By the way, has anyone checked out Hoffmans donation list? Almost all outsiders, and he was actually on the ballot and on a local marketing blitz with TV ads seemingly running every other minute. We should have seen higher local financial support after all of that. Again though, I am not going to hold the outside support against Hoffman either - this is a national election, not a state or local office - it would be foolish to expect only state or worse even, local funds to fuel the campaigns. It's Politics 101.
ReplyDeleteDan, I totally agree with you on campaign finance. It corrupts the whole system and you run the risk of quality candidates getting lost simply due to a lack of funds (although I am not conviced that Lynch would be a quality candidate with or without funds - during the nomination process he seemed to have a few catch phrases that he recycled again and again, often times not even answering the question asked. He has a bit more to learn before he can really add any value in the House of Representatives). That being said, until there are sweeping changes to the rules and regulations regarding the election process, we have to play by the rules we have today. And under those rules, candidates need money to win. And in a poor district like NY23, it is more likely than not that that money will come from the outside. People in each of the respective parties who either want to hang onto a seat or gain a new one will donate to the appropriate campaigns, regardless of district. You are right - they don't care about NY23, they just care about the number of Dems or Repubs in the House. Look how much money came into Hoffman's campaign from people who knew nothing about him or NY23. Once it was clear the election was going to be a dog fight, outside money came flooding in to both candidates. Owens needed it to win. Hoffman needed it to be a serious contender. It kind of is what it is. If the republicans/conservatives didn't accept outside funds, the democrats would have pounced on the opportunity and flooded the airwaves even more. Conversely, if Owens' people had rejected the $420K from outside zip codes, the Hoffman donations would have likely amped up even more, with both the conservative and republican parties seeing an opportunity to win in what would have essentially amounted to an uneven playing field. I hear your gripe, really I do, but it is what it is, and until the rules change, the candidates who can raise money will have an advantage, especially in national elections. In the case of NY23, where there is so little money, the majority of the donations will come from outside. It is a bad system for sure but it surely isn't going to change before the election in 2010. Please don't hold it against the candidates for raising outside funds, be it Owens, Hoffman or Doheny. They have to in order to win.
ReplyDeleteHere is my take on NY23:
ReplyDeleteBeen there, done that candidates:
1. Hoffman...we already had a showdown between Owens and Hoffman and Hoffman lost. And Hoffman's popularily has only dropped since his concession/ rescinded concession sore loser nonsense.
2. Scozzafava...her trainwreck of a campaign was epic and NRCC wouldn't touch her with a ten foot pole, for fear, if nothing else that once again she would drop out and endorse "the enemy". Some RNCC careers were ruined over her missteps.
3. Barclay...he was beaten up so badly in the Aubertine election, the Owens campaign would have every negative ad teed up before the election even started.
Just not qualified:
1. Lynch...He was the potential to be a good candidate in about 10 years, but if he were to go to Washington now he wouldn't get any respect and NY23 would never be heard. Washington is a bit of a fraternity and Lynch would be boxed out by the old-timers on day one. Hasn't the district been the butt of everyone's jokes long enough?
Running on Empty:
1. Maroun...There is no way way this guy would have the energy to keep up with what will likely be another huge election. He is better suited for State politics with a smaller area to represent. To win in NY23 requires unparalled enthusiasm and stamina in order to be heard across all 11 counties. He just doesn't have the drive.
So far so good:
1. Doheny...seems to have the right ingredients: stamina, dedication, fund-raising capabilities, local roots. I am not too hung up on his wealth and his ability to relate to the common man in the district. He came from a pretty humble background in A-bay and his mom still lives in his childhood home. That has got to keep you grounded.
If they "have to rake in outside money to win," as someone posted above, and those who provide the rakes can't even vote for them, then who do they represent in office?
ReplyDeleteIf a local citizen in the district has a gripe or complaint or idea and can't provide $1,000 or more (and calls the Reps' office) and meets head on with a $5,000 or more "donor," on the same phone line, who do you think gets the attention of the Rep? (Hint: No you or me).
If you subscribe to that notion that any amount of money from any source anywhere is okay (wink/wink) then you have no valid complaints later on when your Rep. does not act on your behalf ... all you are left with is just shut up and call it "Politics as usual."
I can't be that way. It is the money.
Finally, show me the candidate who can look the voters in the eye after he takes $500,000 from donors outside the district and tells you with a straight face, “I represent you” and who actually believes it, and I’ll buy you the Moon. Big money does not always win, we all know that (Perot, Golisano, Huffington (Michael), and a few other millionaires), but it sure gets them on the ballot while lesser funded candidates can’t make the cut.
Correct, big money does not guarantee a win, but no underfunded has ever won. Ever. Take a gander through the history books and you will see. This is a pointless argument. Can we move on now?
ReplyDeleteLike your blog, and the Mayor was kind enough to give you some props on his homepage...
ReplyDeleteJust a general take off the tip of my fingers: Hoffman doesn't live in the district and apparently has no working knowledge of our issues therefore, to me, he's out. Doheny, very much an interesting guy, but not a Member of Congress. He's got to get some "political seasoning" to him, interpret that however you wish, but money shouldn't be the only reason we nominate a candidate to Congress. Matt, start with State Assembly or Senate then let's try the big leagues. Everyone else I don't see as having much of a shot except Barclay.
My reasoning is as follows: he has name recognition, positive or negative, that matters. In an election like this he could truly make the case that experience counts and the ability to unite Rs, Is and Cs overtakes everything else. His relationship to McHugh is extensive and those loyalties will be rewarded. Aubertine threw every negative attack at him and squeeked it out, Owens and a national election across 11 counties is a different animal completely.
All of this conversation would be mute if Rep. Owens actually represented NY-23. Has he been seen in the public since his election? All most of us know is that he's voted lock-in step Speaker Pelosi and President Obama's agenda...not a good start.
Interesting perspective regarding Barclay but I think the negative notoriety is just too much for him. Unlike Hollywood, not all press is good press in politics and too many people already think Barclay is not their guy. As for Doheny, you make a good point on Doheny not having any political background, but I think the current environment is ripe for someone to step into the scene without all of the baggage that comes along with a prior political career. He doesn't owe anyone anything. Many people argue that Dede got the nomination in 2009 because it was somehow owed to her and it was "her turn", but look where that kind of political give and take got us. If he were running for US Senate I would agree, but there are over 400 other congressmen out there and a little fresh, non-political blood is exactly what the country needs in there for a change. I am still voting with Doheny. (He also seems more informed about the issues than most of the people already sitting in the House - the guy knows his stuff, both local and national issues) I want to give him a shot...it is time for a real change.
ReplyDeleteConservative Republicans will need to double check this little aspect vis-à-vis supporting Doheny. In addition to his 1/2 million already in the FEC kitty and his ability to raise outside money (I guess it's an ability, or maybe just a good buddy-buddy lawyer network) is this:
ReplyDelete* Doheny is pro-choice, a Manhattan lawyer (yes, a nasty, evil "down-stater") with lots of money and who has won the favor of more moderate Republicans because he would not have to depend on outside interest groups for money... (thus they could breath easier with empty wallets?).
So, if "they" don't have to fund him, that's okay, too, just as long as he wins back the seat. They don't care whether the power base is in CA, TX, FL, or Manhattan.
Alrighty then (said with Jim Carrey accent).
9:11, not Danny Francis.
ReplyDeleteThis is where I have a problem with this "tea-party" movement. I like the back-to-basics approach, but I have issues with putting up candidates with no real experience at the give and take of politics. Like it or not, it's a cut throat game in Washington and putting someone who's never bargained for anything is akin to hiring a recent law school grad to defend you in a murder trial.
I want to best of the best representing and fighting for my tax dollars and the issues important to Northern New York.
Barclay may have some negatives from the Senate race, but I think he could make up a lot of that ground over the next eleven months. That's a lot of time to move poll numbers and create new relationships.
To think that only politicians have ever bargained for anything is a bit naive, don't you think? Regardless, I actually welcome the idea of someone running government more like a business... I am republican afterall.
ReplyDeleteIf the republican party puts up another candidate who the voters have already voted down (i.e. Barclay, Hoffman) then the party deserves to fail. Barclay's case is particularly silly. It is sort of like someone interviewing at a company for an associate level job and not getting it. Then returning to apply for the manager position.
ReplyDeleteWhy would the republican party want to start the race from behind? I don't think the republicans can afford to endorse a candidate that has to "make up a lot of that ground" before the campaign has even begun. The party made a colossal error by nominating Dede - they simply cannot stand behind another candidate with "baggage". The party will already be at a disadvantage with a Democratic incumbent. I would like to see a non-politician on the ballot. Doheny or another. Anyone at this point...just someone who does not have to overcome any previously created political obstacles. I have had my fill of politicians for a lifetime!
ReplyDelete10:44 what kind of "baggage" do you mean? Does the Barclay kid have some skeletons in his closet or something? Please elaborate for us.
ReplyDeleteDo you remember the beating he took during the Aubertine campaign? It was brutal. I don't want to give Owens the amunition all over again, but I am sure his campaign staff is well aware of the Barclay family dealings Aubertine's people uncovered.
ReplyDeleteArguing on the internet...classic. Barclay, Doheny, Maroun, Hoffman whoever it is when their elected they'll be a politician and someone will rail against them for being a politician. Insinuating that any of these guys is any more "normal" than another is simply disingenuous and personality driven.
ReplyDeleteWe're typing about an election that's eleven months away for goodness sake. I wouldn't rule out anyone especially the quiet one's who aren't defending themselves on anonymous blogs.
10:55 Barclay has ever right to run if he wants to. So does Hoffman. So does Doheny. So does Dan Francis. Or anyone else. It is still a free country last time I checked. We should be talking about the key differences between the candidates? What makes Barclay or Doheny better than the other as a representative for the North Country?
ReplyDelete11:00 - you are correct. In every campaign I've ever waged I said it is about three key things: Choices (having many candidates); Differences (between those many candidates); and Consequences (not making change, or making the wrong kind of change).
ReplyDeleteMany in the public are quick to hang a labels on a candidate way before the candidate defines him/herself. We really need to get to know them by listening to how they define themselves, rather than allowing others to define them first.
Seldom in politics does one get a second chance to make a first impression. Believe me, I know. But, I firmly believe too that one should never give up in anything they strive for, either.