Monday, March 29, 2010

NY-23 GOP Chairs Realize It's Hoffman or Owens

Today the Watertown Daily Times has another piece up about Doug Hoffman having the Conservative line for the 2010 NY-23 congressional race. It's a great story for Doug, but I can't help but think the Watertown Daily Times is beating a dead horse. We have read this same story about 100 times over the past few months and it hasn't changed a thing -- Hoffman is running for Congress whether the local Republican leaders sitting in the Ivory Tower want him to or not. This fact was so obvious to Assemblyman Will Barclay that he dropped out of the race for NY-23 because he recognized he couldn't win so long as Doug Hoffman was at the table.

Nancy Martin, the St. Lawrence County GOP Chair, may be the smartest of the Republican bunch who understands that the Republican Party now has an important choice to make. Today she stated clearly that, "Our primary objective is to beat Bill Owens. We can't do that with a split between the Republican line and the Conservative line." And as long as people like Martin continue to concede defeat to Owens unless the Republican and Conservative lines are merged, that means the Republican Party only has two options.

The choice is clear: Republican leaders can run with Doug Hoffman and unite the Republican and Conservative parties to beat Democrat Bill Owens, or they can pick Matt Doheny, a moderate carpetbagger, and know they are handing a victory to Owens. It took poor Don Coon, the Jefferson County GOP Chair, until today to say what Republicans everywhere in NY-23 are thinking. He said simply, "Put Doug Hoffman on the line -- or lose... the fix is in." In fairness Donald Coon doesn't like his choice, but at least he is being honest in his assessment.

The Republican chairs know Hoffman is running and they can't legally stop him from doing so. That's a beautiful thing for American democracy. Does the Republican Party really have any business in telling someone whether they can or can't run as a Conservative anyways? Do the NY-23 Republican leaders want to be remembered as the clan who gave Owens his path to victory in 2010 after having voted for ObamaCare twice?

The holdouts like James Ellis, the Franklin County GOP chair, should just give up their crusade to tear down Hoffman by saying things like, "If you choose otherwise (i.e. Matt Doheny), Doug Hoffman is going to make sure the GOP candidate loses." That's some great spin by Ellis, but does he think voters are stupid? People know that what Ellis is really saying is, "If we pick someone other than Hoffman we are most likely going to lose and it will be all our fault, but I don't want to take the blame so I am setting up Hoffman to be the fall guy."

What Ellis needs to understand is that a lot of people want Hoffman to run as a Conservative if he doesn't run on both party lines. There are a lot of people who would be infuriated with Hoffman if he abandoned the very people who have donated, volunteered, and supported him over the last several months. It's not so hard to understand Hoffman's position when you think it through. It just makes you wonder if Ellis wants Owens to win because he has an ulterior motive.

What Martin and Coon are willing to admit, but what Ellis still refuses to accept, is that Doug Hoffman out-played them in this technical game we call politics. And because Hoffman has the people on his side, he has no reason to abandon them or the Conservative Party. Hoffman is looking to win by addition. Hoffman haters want to force him into losing (and by extension themselves) by subtraction. No one can credibly blame Hoffman for his decision because it is, in fact, the only winning strategy.

Those who don't understand it, or refuse to accept it, just need to get over themselves because the race will be won by Hoffman or Owens. And if the race for NY-23 turns into a 3-way race and you are unhappy with the result look no further than James Ellis and the other holdouts in his tiny corner. The choice is clear and Republicans get to make it.


  1. Hoffman will win the Republican nomination. None of the other candidates even have a website yet. They are not going to be able to catch up with the organization that has been built. Even Matt Flynn who is running for a County seat has a website.

    On that note, I wonder how the Republicans would feel if it did turn into a 3-way race (which is unlikely). Imagine a scenario where Hoffman wins in a 3-way race as a Conservative. Wow - the Republican Party in NY-23 would crumble into irrelevance. That would be a sight to see. The Republican brand is damaged. In 2010 everyone wants to go with the Conservatives - at least they will do what they say they are going to do.

  2. So you are not the "Buggs Buddy" who created the group "Doug Hoffman: Looking Out for Himself" on Facebook, hmm? It appears someone is using your "name."

  3. Rep. Owens has already won. Doug Hoffman cannot beat Rep. Owens head to head. And another Republican cannot win if Mr. Hoffman is on the Conservative line.

  4. It appears someone is "sweet" on you Buggs. I mean, imitation is the best form of flattery. Don't they know that it's Looney to tune into anything other than the real thing. By the way, Maroun cannot even be considered a third tier after the debate in Plattsburgh.

  5. So because Mike Long, a single person who lives in NYC, dictated that Hoffman was going to be on the ballot, all of the voters in NY23 and the entire Republican party should just back down, despite the fact that Hoffman is a poorer candidate in the eyes of many. And then your post implies that if the voters are dumb enough to nominate Doheny...keep in mind, it would the voters who would nominate him, not a single party leader in NYC who is operating out of hubris, then it is their fault for having a three party race. Why isn't it Hoffman's fault for accepting a nomination that is not the will of the people in the district but rather an appointment made by a single party leader in NYC. Your post implies that the opinion of Mike Long is more valuable than the opinion of the voters in NY23. Why? Because Mike Long dictated his support first (knowing full well that the republicans operate through more of a democracy and will actually VOTE in their nominee at a later date)? That is just stupid logic and you know it.

  6. Bugs writes in part:

    “It took poor Don Coon, the Jefferson County GOP Chair, until today to say what Republicans everywhere in NY-23 are thinking. He said simply, "Put Doug Hoffman on the line -- or lose ... the fix is in.”

    I'm not a Republican, so I don't think that way, but I would modify that quote this way: “Put Doug Hoffman on the line – AND lose.” - not, or lose!!

    Mr. Hoffman is out of step and out of touch on tough realistic issues that a member of the House would face. Just saying "No" is not what the people want or deserve. He has the sound bytes down pat, but that's about it.

    The same for Mr. Maroun and Mr. Dohney. Both are lost in space, but have the red meat issues tied to their banners. I'd have to say that this trio is bad news for the Grand Old Party ...

    Hoffman may run as the sole Conservative, but keep in mind that there are a lot of issues that demand tough leadership and decisiveness not divisiveness. I don't see it in these three at all and not especially in Mr. Hoffman – they just do not pack the gear as they old saying goes.

    Okay, take your best shot... I feel it coming.

    : )

  7. Hoffman has the strangle hold on this nomination and its a sad state of affiars when one guy from NYC can hijack an entire Congressional District. This really speaks to the lack of character that is within Doug Hoffman and is why a lot of loyal Republicans simply can't stand him.

    For him to say that, "unfortunetly," he's already on the ballot is simply disingenuous. WRONG DOUG. You could do the right thing and ask that whoever wins the nomination in the Repubican primary get the Conservative nomination. You could do that and you should do that.

    Simply saying that you've already been promised the line does not give you any legitimacy and to those of us who make up the middle of the Republican Party, the true strength, we know you're full of it.

    Do the right thing, or don't. It is your choice, but there's a lot of us who simply won't forget your decision either way and will hold onto it for a VERY long time.

  8. It sounds like the Republican Party in NY-23 is a gluten for failure. Do these people enjoy losing with democrat-lite canddiates with an R at the end of their name?

  9. I totally agree with 1:33 PM.

    "Hoffman has the people on his side, he has no reason to abandon them or the Conservative Party." I strongly disagree with Buggs' analysis here. Hoffman has MIKE LONG on his side. It has yet to be seen if in a primary for either the Republican or Conservative lines, if he would have the support of the people.

  10. Carpetbagger is a little bit unfair, no? Hoffman didn't technically live in the District until a couple of months ago either. Doheny was born, raised, and schooled in it. Left to go to school and work for a while although he still spent a lot of time in the District anyway. Put another way, Hillary Clinton was a carpetbagger. Neither Hoffman nor Doheny are.

    But down to the substance. You're protesting too much. All of this talk of GOP chairs is interesting, but at bottom, the GOP is going to have a primary where the chairs are going to get the same single vote every other GOP voter gets, the Conservatives are simply going to name who they want to name.

    Ultimately, it's easy argue that "people want Hoffman to run as a conservative" because it can't be proven unless all three eventually run.

    This post is just the flip side of what you're accusing the GOP chairs of doing. The critical distinction is that Mike Long and Doug Hoffman are the only two guys who can affect the Conservative part of equation, on the GOP side, it's the GOP voters who will have the final say.

    You can argue that Hoffman won't back down. If Doheny wins a primary, he will argue that he won't back down either. Hoffman will say he has the support of Conservatives. Doheny will say he has proven his claim of support by GOP voters. One side will actually have recent evidence of their claim, one won't.

    Seems like a game of political chicken to me. But the argument that a guy like Coon wants Owen to win is really the same thing as saying that Hoffman does. It's spurious. We know neither is true.

  11. Gluten? Leave my barley out of this!

  12. Absolutely ridiculous!

    That we're even having this discussion is absolutely ridiculous.

    Doug Hoffman is acting like a little baby. If he can't play ball on his own terms he's going to make it so nobody can? If Doug can't beat Matt Doheny head-to-head in the primary, he sure can't beat Bill Owens.

    If Doug Hoffman decides to split the vote and run without the Republican line it'll show everybody just how little he cares about the people of this district.

    What a bad guy.

  13. 5:11 - what candidate are you referring to? who do you think is democrat-lite (except Owens)? The RINO election is over. Dede fit the title, but no one in the election this year does. Stop trying to be so divisive and try to analyze the situation. Do you know anything about Doheny's position on union labor? How about fiscal policy? If you were well informed you would know that there is no way he is another RINO. Stop throwing that argument around so loosely - it weakens it when it really applies (as it did with Dede).

  14. Doheny is still at like 2% in the polls and all he can do is attack Doug Hoffman. I think it is kind of funny actually. The guy from Wall Street moved back to Watertown less than a year ago and he is so power hungry that he is willing to say or do anything to get elected. Here is some advice for you Matt - get a website up first and stop attacking because it makes you look petty.

  15. What polls? With the exception of a couple mailers and a few blurbs in the local paper the campaigns haven't even begun. There isn't a single ad on TV. The only person who should have any name recognition at this point is Hoffman. This is a long election. To quote polls at this stage is a joke.

  16. {Chuckle}

    Hey Anon 10:35- What? Are you in the website business? You're probably the same Rhodes Scholar who said Dougy-Boy is the only REAL candidate because he's the only one with a web site! You are friggin' precious!

  17. There are no polls. Hoffman is running scared because he cannot compete against a candidate with a pulse. The fact of the matter is that Doug Hoffman is a electoral terrorist, threatening to blow the election if he is denied line B.

    This is a monumental failure on his part. I can't fault the Conservative Party for wanting to run an actual conservative candidate, but Doheny fits the bill.

  18. The real problem lies with Mike Long. He should tone down the ego and state publicly that the Conservative Party will back Hoffman, Maroun or Doheny - whichever one wins the republican nomination. All three fit the conservative party bill and Mike Long stated last summer that he would endorse anyone who got nominated except Dede. I respect that position. Why not do the same this year? Why back a weak candidate and then through threats and innuendos try to strong arm the republican party to nominate the same weak candidate? It just doesn't make sense. (It really just illustrates how Mike Long operates out of hubris rather than good sense).

  19. Doug's positions are firm and strong and clearly reflective of the Conservative ticket. He has name recognition, money in the bank, a grassroots movement with real people, people in the 23rd contributing to his campaign. When Doheny was asked how he would fund a run if he was given the endorsement of the chairs, he never once stated that the people of the district would support him and help him beat Bill Owens. He cited his own coffers, Wall Street friends and large business contributions (after he wins the primary). Doug Hoffman's desire to decrease the size of government, lessen its intrusion in our lives, abandon the long used practice of earmarks, less regulation, reconfiguration of the tax code and breaks to small businesses (the backbone of the US economy) demonstrates his close ties to the ideals of not just the Conservative Party but the Republican Party and the Tea Party. He is the only candidate able to unite all three and Buggs clearly makes this point. Furthermore, Doheny's stand on abortion, love of earmarks to pay for where we build sewers and roads and his desire to raise the social security age to pay for the debt are not real conservative values. I smell another RINO coming and his positions are oddly similar to our last Republican candidate in 09.

  20. 9:10 - you are an idiot if you think Doug Hoffman's funding was and will continue to be from people in the district. Wake up. Take a look at the list campaign contributions (although Doug's list continues to be riddled with mistakes, which is troubling for an accountant, but that is a whole other issue). Hoffman was a placeholder. He is a moron. Don't you want to be proud of our congressman? Wake up.