NY-23 GOP Chairs Realize It's Hoffman or Owens

Today the Watertown Daily Times has another piece up about Doug Hoffman having the Conservative line for the 2010 NY-23 congressional race. It's a great story for Doug, but I can't help but think the Watertown Daily Times is beating a dead horse. We have read this same story about 100 times over the past few months and it hasn't changed a thing -- Hoffman is running for Congress whether the local Republican leaders sitting in the Ivory Tower want him to or not. This fact was so obvious to Assemblyman Will Barclay that he dropped out of the race for NY-23 because he recognized he couldn't win so long as Doug Hoffman was at the table.

Nancy Martin, the St. Lawrence County GOP Chair, may be the smartest of the Republican bunch who understands that the Republican Party now has an important choice to make. Today she stated clearly that, "Our primary objective is to beat Bill Owens. We can't do that with a split between the Republican line and the Conservative line." And as long as people like Martin continue to concede defeat to Owens unless the Republican and Conservative lines are merged, that means the Republican Party only has two options.

The choice is clear: Republican leaders can run with Doug Hoffman and unite the Republican and Conservative parties to beat Democrat Bill Owens, or they can pick Matt Doheny, a moderate carpetbagger, and know they are handing a victory to Owens. It took poor Don Coon, the Jefferson County GOP Chair, until today to say what Republicans everywhere in NY-23 are thinking. He said simply, "Put Doug Hoffman on the line -- or lose... the fix is in." In fairness Donald Coon doesn't like his choice, but at least he is being honest in his assessment.

The Republican chairs know Hoffman is running and they can't legally stop him from doing so. That's a beautiful thing for American democracy. Does the Republican Party really have any business in telling someone whether they can or can't run as a Conservative anyways? Do the NY-23 Republican leaders want to be remembered as the clan who gave Owens his path to victory in 2010 after having voted for ObamaCare twice?

The holdouts like James Ellis, the Franklin County GOP chair, should just give up their crusade to tear down Hoffman by saying things like, "If you choose otherwise (i.e. Matt Doheny), Doug Hoffman is going to make sure the GOP candidate loses." That's some great spin by Ellis, but does he think voters are stupid? People know that what Ellis is really saying is, "If we pick someone other than Hoffman we are most likely going to lose and it will be all our fault, but I don't want to take the blame so I am setting up Hoffman to be the fall guy."

What Ellis needs to understand is that a lot of people want Hoffman to run as a Conservative if he doesn't run on both party lines. There are a lot of people who would be infuriated with Hoffman if he abandoned the very people who have donated, volunteered, and supported him over the last several months. It's not so hard to understand Hoffman's position when you think it through. It just makes you wonder if Ellis wants Owens to win because he has an ulterior motive.

What Martin and Coon are willing to admit, but what Ellis still refuses to accept, is that Doug Hoffman out-played them in this technical game we call politics. And because Hoffman has the people on his side, he has no reason to abandon them or the Conservative Party. Hoffman is looking to win by addition. Hoffman haters want to force him into losing (and by extension themselves) by subtraction. No one can credibly blame Hoffman for his decision because it is, in fact, the only winning strategy.

Those who don't understand it, or refuse to accept it, just need to get over themselves because the race will be won by Hoffman or Owens. And if the race for NY-23 turns into a 3-way race and you are unhappy with the result look no further than James Ellis and the other holdouts in his tiny corner. The choice is clear and Republicans get to make it.

The Republican Hangover?

We aren't taking sides in the GOP knife fight that is about to ensue all across New York State and NY-23. But 2010 will be a tremendously important year for political parties all across the state and it will have a dramatic impact on the next round of political redistricting and the policies that come out of Albany and Washington for decades to come. With that in mind it is safe to say that Republicans are still suffering from "a major Scozzafava Hangover" that we aren't sure they will soon recover from anytime soon. Lets review!

US Senate:

First, there is no serious Republican candidate for Senator Kirsten Gillibrand's US Senate seat. And it is starting to get late in the game for former Governor George Pataki to get into the mix. Senator Gillibrand is locking down endorsements and support from all corners of the district, while Republicans wonder into the wilderness. And if Former Tennessee Congressman Hank Ford were to win a long-shot Democratic primary attempt it would likely be even more difficult for the Republicans to pick up the US Senate seat left by Hillary Clinton.

NYS Governor:

Regarding the Governors race we have to be fair in saying Democrats have their own in-fighting between Attorney General Andrew Cuomo and Governor David Paterson supporters, but it happens behind-closed-doors. Paterson is the first black Governor of the state and Cuomo is eyeing to take him out -- in my analysis, for right or wrong, that is a dicey move in statewide politics in New York. The Republican Party has an "okay" candidate in failed US Senate candidate Rick Lazio, and an unknown quantity in Chris Collins, an Erie County Executive, as Plan B. Rudy Giuliani and John Faso have already run away from the offer. For Lazio, it doesn't help with a major New York headline reads,"Even in G.O.P., Lazio's Bid for Governor is a Hard Sell." For Collins, it doesn't help that he is way behind in organization and fundraising. Some NY-23 chairs had fallen over themselves so much so that they set up a secret meeting with Collins that ordinary constituents weren't allowed to participate in. It sounds like NY-23 all over again. But on a positive note, even though Collins has yet to announce his candidacy, it appears as though the executive has garnered the signatures of at least 15 county chairs on a letter of endorsement including two GOP County Chairs from NY-23, Donald Coon of Jefferson County and James Ellis of Franklin County. But is that a wise move for the county chairmen after what just happened in NY-23? Voters in Upstate New York don't even know who Chris Collins is, anything about his record or what his uniting message will be. "Anyone but the Democrats?" Someone please remind the GOP that Democrats outnumber Republicans by something of a 2 to 1 margin statewide. The county chairs that make up in NY-23 may want to be careful when they are playing with fire.

More on the Collins Letter & NY-23:

Jude Seymour of the Watertown Paper highlighted this week how Nancy Martin, the St. Lawrence County GOP boss, declined to sign the Collins letter because she hasn't addressed the issue with her local committee and because the letter sounded like an endorsement.

Sounds like a good enough reason on the surface, but if Martin's logic is to first consult with her committee before making this type of decision so as not to alienate the local party faithful then why is she actively trashing Doug Hoffman, a potential Republican candidate for the NY-23 race, without first also consulting her caucus to see if they have her back? We got two angry e-mails this week from county leaders who were none to pleased with the contents of the Ogdensburg paper that Sunday.

Here is the skinny. It appears that in December Martin pushed a top-of-the-fold, front page, full-frontal attack on Doug Hoffman, just out of spite. Martin's name was littered in the text of the article with quotes like, "During the past congressional election Mr. Hoffman broke with the party," and "I don't think the Republican party has forgiven Mr. Hoffman. A lot of DeDe's supporters are still angry." She continued, "We need to have a broad-based party," then dug in a little more by pointing out that Mr. Hoffman lost in the general election to Mr. Owens, who won with only 48 percent of the vote.

And as if she hadn't made her point clear enough, Mrs. Martin dropped her opposition language and revealed her true vindictive character by stating that while the 11 county Republicans party chairs in the 23rd District drew sharp criticism from outside the district for not supporting Mr. Hoffman's candidacy, the reality is that Mr. Hoffman was among the bottom of the nine candidates who were questioned by party leaders during four public interviews held across Northern New York. "Republicans aren't going to embrace him. Republicans are looking for a more electable candidate." We were thinking that maybe Martin was referring to an incumbent Assemblywoman from Gouvernor, but we were actually referred to another story in the same paper on that same day, in which Martin was quoted as saying favorable things about another potential NY-23 candidate, Matthew Doheny. Doheny, another top-tier candidate with an ability to raise money, was able to draw nearly 100 supporters to a small-dollar fundraiser for his election campaign in Watertown last month.

Conclusion:

The problems at the state level with recruitment are one problem. Local disenfranchisement is another. Infighting and throwing fellow Republicans under the bus in the local press is yet another. And dissatisfaction with the direction of the Republican Party is a whole different animal, too. But this hangover is not likely to go away in NY-23 when activists are complaining that they are fed up with the local Republican party chairs' complete intolerance, systematic dysfunction and strong-arm tactics. Maybe post-Scozzafava, Republican leaders don't have enough confidence in themselves to find a good candidate to challenge Addie Russell and Darrel Aubertine. Or maybe it is the potential candidates who don't have enough confidence in their county leaders to put their name and reputation on the ballot.

As we see the dynamics unfold in Clinton and St. Lawrence Counties we can be sure controversy will begin to brew in the others. And there are real undertones of a Republican grassroots rebellion like we have never seen before. For NY-23, some in the GOP camp fear that the Scozzafava hangover might be here to stay past election day 2010. There is a pill Republican leaders can take to cure their hangover, but it is an awful tough one to swallow.