Timing the Race for NY-23

Mayor Graham has an interesting take on the two-step campaign that will be waged for the NY-23 race this year. First, the Republican candidates will have a primary that happens on Tuesday, September 14th. Then the GOP winner will go up against incumbent Congressman Bill Owens on Tuesday, November 2nd.

The timing here is important because the district is so large and rural. Mayor Graham had it right that this race will take a lot of organization and old-fashioned shoe leather. While we are still seven months out from the primary, that is not a lot of time to build an aggressive grassroots team across a huge rural district like NY-23. And seven months is not a lot of time if you want to be taken seriously as a candidate who can beat an incumbent like Bill Owens.

It is also getting really late for any other candidates to get into the ring at this late juncture. At least three candidates: Barclay, Doheny and Hoffman, are building staff and attending some local events. It would be a fair prediction to suggest that no other candidate will be taken seriously as the campaigns shift into second gear. For some candidates, the longer they wait to officially get into the political ring, the harder it becomes to be competitive in building the name ID and trust that will be needed to bring down Bill Owens in November.

Doug Hoffman has a head start because of the momentum he built in the special election last year. He likely has an impressive file of donors, volunteers, and supporters who helped him become competitive in the last two weeks of the race last year. Hoffman is the only candidate with a campaign website and he is dominating the new political battlefront, online campaigning. Hoffman's infrastructure will go a long way because the file his campaign developed last year is fairly updated, having been created just months ago, and ready to be tapped into.

Will Barclay also an advantage as we move into the second half of February. He has good name recognition in the western end of the district where he is an incumbent Assemblyman. He also has some name ID in the central part of NY-23 from his failed State Senate run against Darrel Aubertine. Barclay's challenge is to become more well known in the eastern and central part of the state where he hasn't been as active in politics. That task can be accomplished in seven months, but he will need to start moving quickly.

It would be to Matt Doheny's strategic advantage if he officially entered the race sooner rather than later. Based on the context of Mayor Graham's blog post today, I would expect Doheny to make that move rather soon because of his political necessity -- he has to do something to shake this race up!

Doheny, the New York investor, has been away from the district for almost ten years, and while he has maintained two homes here (one in Watertown and one on an Island on the river) it will presumably be much harder for him to build the kind of infrastructure that already exists for the two other leading GOP contenders. Voters who have met Doheny that we have talked to have called him a candidate that is "a bit elitist and very mysterious." Getting into the thick of the campaign could help Doheny build new trust, stronger alliances and improve his low name ID. These negatives were evident in the latest poll that came out last month showing Doheny in 4th place with only 2% favorable name ID. NY-23 is a big district and it takes a lot of time to meet the voters, build their trust and introduce yourself. With that said, Doheny does have a team in place and is raising early money, albeit from Wall Street bankers and traditional Democratic donors.

These races, especially multi-candidate primaries, are hard to predict. However, with a protracted calendar the advantage would seem to lay with Hoffman and then Barclay, which may give us some insight into why both candidates have yet to make an official declaration of their intent to run yet. With less time to compete for voters, both Hoffman and Barclay (in that order) will have a competitive advantage in rallying their pre-existing networks of political support, compared to other candidates who are still on the sidelines and just now beginning to make their first-time introductions.

Certainly money means a lot, but all candidates have the same amount of time, which is finite in politics. How well each candidate choses to strategize the schedule will play a big part in who gets to face Bill Owens for the federal seat, which will always be remembered as Congressman John McHugh's old job.

Political IV Comes Out from Hiding

We thought that Political IV may have fallen off the map, but we got him for this exclusive interview. Here is a Republican insider's view of NY-23 and local politics in Jefferson and St. Lawrence Counties. Enjoy!

Buggs Buddy Question: Thank you for taking the time to participate in our interview and thanks also for the insight you have offered for so long on your site, www.politicaliv.blogspot.com. Your site was obviously one of the first around the North Country to cover local politics and culture. Because of that I am sure our readers would be very interested in learning about your thoughts on NY-23, local politics and the direction of the Republican Party. Please share with us when you first started your site and how it has progressed since its inception. Why did you initially decide to start your site?

Political IV Response: I began the site as an alternate forum and viewpoint to then blog Danger Democrat and I believed at the time that there needed to be balance to the online forum and exchange of ideas. It was a nice online exchange between Danger Democrat and Political IV which played off each other as the only two sites out for a long time, competition is healthy! As far as NY-23, it is obvious that incumbents are difficult to beat due to a variety of reasons; the power of the office and the ability to deliver solidifies a base of support and people are reluctant to oppose an incumbent, especially a first term incumbent who has yet to really endanger him or herself. That being said, the possibility that is being created is the ideological shift. The people primarily prefer centrist governing and tend resist being pushed too far left as with Barack Obama or too far right as with George W. Bush. You have to give Congressman Owens at least as many points as he had in the last race and he gains a couple with incumbency, which makes it a difficult road for a challenger.

BB: We have asked this question to multiple people because it is an interesting one. It seems like the Republican Party in NY-23 has some real problems it needs to work out if it wants to be successful in 2010. What direction do you think the local Republican establishment and the county chairs should take in managing the competing interests between moderates and conservatives? Can the Scozzafava's and the Hoffman's of the GOP coexist? And if you want to answer this -- which Republican opponent do you think would be the hardest and easiest for Owens to go up against in 2010?

PIV: I believe moderates and conservatives can coexist in the Republican party. Except for the far far radical right, I believe a reasonable person has respect for someone's social views. The issue that solidified people's view of the Republican candidate for NY-23 in the last election was her position on "card check" and her general (albeit quiet) pursuit of the Working Families line. She often referred to her position and John McHugh's position on card check as equal, while she failed to recognize that former Congressman McHugh had earned much more political capital and was able to expend it from time to time. I would say Barclay or Doheny are likely the fronts runners and have what it takes to win, both intelligent people. Hoffman is the easiest for Owens to defeat, it will be difficult, if not improbable for him to recreate the atmosphere in the last election.

BB: We asked Mayor Graham this question and his answer was "Deficit!" But what do you think are the main issues that Republicans should focus on in 2010 at the state and national level?

PIV: Basic - managing spending and the size of government and spending. The first one to figure how to prevent government from running deficits without taxing people out of the means - wins! It is the basic job of an elected official to manage finances and it amazes me the legislators of New York state get away with such mismanagement.

BB: Are you supporting any particular candidate for Governor in 2010? Do you think that Congressman Peter King could make a credible challenge against Kirsten Gillibrand for Senate? Are there any other candidates you are looking at who are considering a statewide bid?

PIV: I like Collins from Erie County for the Governor's race and I like what he is doing there. Gillibrand beats King. Gillibrand is extremely vulnerable in NYC and had to shift her ideology in order to build her support there, so it needs to be someone who can win there and that person just declined to run.

BB: I assume you mean Rudy. So what candidates or local leaders are you most excited about and who do you see as rising stars of the Republican Party in Upstate New York?

PIV: I think Josh Lynch has a future in politics in this area, there is a lot of youth out there that needs to be nurtured to be future leaders. It is difficult to get people involved, people have more structured activities and attracting good people is a challenge for both parties, we need to do a better job of involving youth and listening to them.

BB: What is your prediction on candidates that might emerge for State Senator Darrel Aubertine's 48th state senate district? Who do you think can mount a credible challenge to Addie Russell's state assembly seat and will Dede Scozzafava see a primary challenge for her state assembly seat?

PIV: I think we will see Patty Ritchie give it serious thought, but I am not sure she can win. I still like Barclay for state senate, I think Will Barclay is a very intelligent individual and if the electorate were to view this as if they were hiring the most qualified and capable person then Will Barclay would be State Senator. Darrel Aubertine is a nice enough person, but he is not qualified and he does not demonstrate leadership in the region as he should as State Senator. For the record I like Darrel as a person. There are a number of people who could challenge Addie Russell and win, but we are talking Assembly Republicans versus Assembly Democrats, there is a significant money advantage in the majority.

BB: PIV, thank you for your time. Is there anything else you would like our readers to know about you, local politics or the Republican Party in NY-23 that might be of interest to our readers?

PIV: The process of designating election districts and apportionment is seriously flawed and that is why there are very few competitive elections, the redistricting process needs to be reform and I am a firm believer in term limits for state leadership positions such as Assembly Speaker, Senate Majority Leader and such. The system breeds dysfunction and New York State lives up to its potential of dysfunction.

BB: Well said. Thanks for your thoughts and analysis. I thought for a few days there we might have lost you for awhile, but I'm glad you are alive and well. With that, I hope that your blog will become more active again so we can provide additional information to the voters in NY-23. I look forward to future exchanges with you and everyone else in this important election year.