Timing the Race for NY-23

Mayor Graham has an interesting take on the two-step campaign that will be waged for the NY-23 race this year. First, the Republican candidates will have a primary that happens on Tuesday, September 14th. Then the GOP winner will go up against incumbent Congressman Bill Owens on Tuesday, November 2nd.

The timing here is important because the district is so large and rural. Mayor Graham had it right that this race will take a lot of organization and old-fashioned shoe leather. While we are still seven months out from the primary, that is not a lot of time to build an aggressive grassroots team across a huge rural district like NY-23. And seven months is not a lot of time if you want to be taken seriously as a candidate who can beat an incumbent like Bill Owens.

It is also getting really late for any other candidates to get into the ring at this late juncture. At least three candidates: Barclay, Doheny and Hoffman, are building staff and attending some local events. It would be a fair prediction to suggest that no other candidate will be taken seriously as the campaigns shift into second gear. For some candidates, the longer they wait to officially get into the political ring, the harder it becomes to be competitive in building the name ID and trust that will be needed to bring down Bill Owens in November.

Doug Hoffman has a head start because of the momentum he built in the special election last year. He likely has an impressive file of donors, volunteers, and supporters who helped him become competitive in the last two weeks of the race last year. Hoffman is the only candidate with a campaign website and he is dominating the new political battlefront, online campaigning. Hoffman's infrastructure will go a long way because the file his campaign developed last year is fairly updated, having been created just months ago, and ready to be tapped into.

Will Barclay also an advantage as we move into the second half of February. He has good name recognition in the western end of the district where he is an incumbent Assemblyman. He also has some name ID in the central part of NY-23 from his failed State Senate run against Darrel Aubertine. Barclay's challenge is to become more well known in the eastern and central part of the state where he hasn't been as active in politics. That task can be accomplished in seven months, but he will need to start moving quickly.

It would be to Matt Doheny's strategic advantage if he officially entered the race sooner rather than later. Based on the context of Mayor Graham's blog post today, I would expect Doheny to make that move rather soon because of his political necessity -- he has to do something to shake this race up!

Doheny, the New York investor, has been away from the district for almost ten years, and while he has maintained two homes here (one in Watertown and one on an Island on the river) it will presumably be much harder for him to build the kind of infrastructure that already exists for the two other leading GOP contenders. Voters who have met Doheny that we have talked to have called him a candidate that is "a bit elitist and very mysterious." Getting into the thick of the campaign could help Doheny build new trust, stronger alliances and improve his low name ID. These negatives were evident in the latest poll that came out last month showing Doheny in 4th place with only 2% favorable name ID. NY-23 is a big district and it takes a lot of time to meet the voters, build their trust and introduce yourself. With that said, Doheny does have a team in place and is raising early money, albeit from Wall Street bankers and traditional Democratic donors.

These races, especially multi-candidate primaries, are hard to predict. However, with a protracted calendar the advantage would seem to lay with Hoffman and then Barclay, which may give us some insight into why both candidates have yet to make an official declaration of their intent to run yet. With less time to compete for voters, both Hoffman and Barclay (in that order) will have a competitive advantage in rallying their pre-existing networks of political support, compared to other candidates who are still on the sidelines and just now beginning to make their first-time introductions.

Certainly money means a lot, but all candidates have the same amount of time, which is finite in politics. How well each candidate choses to strategize the schedule will play a big part in who gets to face Bill Owens for the federal seat, which will always be remembered as Congressman John McHugh's old job.