Three Republicans Running for US Senate

There are three Republican candidates who can be considered top challengers for the Republican Party nomination to take on incumbent Democratic US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand this fall.

Joe DioGuardi was a Congressman from downstate and his daughter was an American Idol judge. He's got almost a million dollars in the bank to challenge Gillibrand, but it's going to take a lot more than that to even make it out of the Republican primary. He's got some solid conservative backing though. Below is a nice 2-minute video of Joe made by a grassroots supporter.

Former Wall Street hand David Malpass just got into the race. He has the endorsement of former Presidential candidate and flat-tax proponent Steve Forbes. Malpass also worked for the Joint Economic Committee in Congress, for President Ronald Reagan and President George H.W. Bush. Malpass announced he has raised over a million dollars for the seat.

Bruce Blakeman has been in the race for a few months now and has the most name ID because of his run for State Comptroller in 1998. Blakeman was also a former Nassau County Legislator and former commissioner of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. He has former Senator Al D'Amato and he has hired some top tier fundraising consultants earlier this month.

Winners and Losers

We felt like it would be fun to point out some of our recent winners and losers in New York State politics over the last several days. We hope many of our readers will concur with our assessments. Feel free to add others to either category in the comments section, or debate why we are wrong in our analysis.

Biggest Losers:

Governor David Paterson - Putting Tiger Woods aside, we don't think anyone can deny that this guy wins the gold medal for the biggest loser. Our 55th Governor of the State of New York has racked up a long list of stupidness: pending ethics violations over accepting World Series tickets, covering up sexual abuse scandal with state resources and direct calls to police to save his body man, rumors of various affairs including one with a state employee that he admitted when he first came to office, proposed tax increases on all sorts of goodies, appointing Kirsten Gillibrand to a US Senate seat and a general gross mismanagement of the state's runaway budget deficit. Paterson's story is playing out like a bad scene from the Jersey Shore. Good riddance.

Congressman Eric Massa- Rumors are abound that the House ethics committee will investigate whether Massa had sexually abused a male staffer and will be retiring at the end of 2010. Just wait for the attack dogs and Democratic colleagues alike to call for his resignation. A special election like the one in New York 23 might be just around the corner.

Congressman Charlie Rangel - Rangel is caught up in some compromising ethics violation(s). Politico reported that, "the catalyst for Rangel's removal came last week, when the ethics committee ruled that he had broken House gift rules by accepting corporate-sponsored travel to the Caribbean." He has now lost his chairmanship of the powerful Ways and Means Committee that writes tax policy after serving the House for 39 years. Is there anymore to say about that? Owens is counting his lucky starts that he didn't have to vote on removing Rangel of his chairmanship.

New York State Democrats - How many Democratic Governors can New York blow through without looking ridiculous? Spitzer, Paterson, State Senator Monserrate, Massa and Rangel have seriously damaged the party brand in New York. Are these leaders a reflection of the Democratic party as a whole? The budget is a mess, taxes are high, businesses are moving out of state, party leaders getting greedy and Harold Ford said he got out of the primary race because the party in New York State Democrats aren't strong enough to deal with the pressure and still win. All bets are off in 2010.

Congressman Bill Owens - Our new representative is talking about jobs recently, but he is about to lose his own for voting for socialized medicine that includes all sorts of perverse carve-outs for other states, increased taxes and cuts to Medicare. If he flip-flops on the health care vote he will discourage his base of Democrat supporters. If he votes for it he loses the election to whatever candidate(s) that run against him. It is a tough spot to be in, but Pelosi and Obama are the ones who got him to Washington and he owes it to them. Ironically, Pelosi and Obama, the same people who got Owens elected, are the same people who are going to get him run out of office.

Assemblyman Will Barclay - His campaign will not answer our questions and the candidate is not being open with the public. Michael Baucus of the Barclay campaign responded to an e-mail request to get 3-5 of our 20 questions answered with this lame response: "Will Barclay would be more than pleased to answer each of those twenty questions if he becomes a candidate for Congress. If you live in the 23rd Congressional District, all you have to do is attend any scheduled candidates debate, stand up, identify yourself and state your question. Will Barclay would, of course, afford any district voter the same opportunity." So for our readers -- feel free to ask your questions when you see Barclay on the campaign trail. But good luck getting your questions answered.

Mayor Jeff Graham - If Mort Zukerman had given up control of his media empire to run for US Senate, Jeff Graham could have made a quick move to cut into the media mogul's huge national market. Graham is still doing well with his blog and radio show. But had Zukerman officially gotten into the race, Graham could have capitalized and made it big.

USA Men's Olympic Hockey Team - Team USA were the underdogs, no doubt. We played hard but only got the silver medal -- unfortunately, second place is the first loser. And you lost to Canada!

The Watertown Daily Times - The Times falls into the loser category because they are awful almost every week. Any objections?

Winners:

Andrew Cuomo - Love him or hate him or just don't care, this guy is undoubtably going to be the Democratic nominee for Governor. For the sake of our state, lets just pray he is better than Spitzer and Paterson.

Harold Ford Jr. - He got out of the Democratic US Senate primary just in time. The New York Democratic establishment was about to eat the guy up and spit him out. He saved his reputation and now maybe he can make a run for Charlie Rangel's seat.

Bruce Blakeman - Media mogul Mort Zuckerman is pulling out of the US Senate race against Gillibrand and that opening gives Blakeman a clearer shot at the GOP nomination. Gillibrand's negatives are so high that the Lewis county dog-catcher could make it a competitive race in year where Republicans were able to win in Massachusetts.

Ann Marie Buerkle - We haven't talked about our neighbor district to the south-west, but they have a battle brewing for the congressional Republican nomination to challenge Representative Dan Maffei in NY-25. Buerkle is winning Republican and Conservative endorsements for her race at a blistering pace. What's Up NY-23 isn't offering its endorsement yet, but is predicting Buerkle is on the best path to become the GOP nominee for that race.

Darrel Aubertine - Getting beat up by New York City press for opposing a liberal farm workers bill isn't always a bad thing for an upstate Democrat. He is also now a member of the fiscal watch force. Let's see what he does with it.

Mike Long - The Conservative Party Chairman has been gaining credibility across the state and has to be taken seriously by Republicans at every level because of the fusion voting system in the state and the conservative movement's ability to tap into voter discontent.

Patty Ritchie - Even though Ritchie has been attacked on the Lewis and Oswego blogs, she is still the frontrunner for the 48th Senate district race. Whoever gets the nod could make it a race for the ages against Aubertine. There is still a lot of time left, but Ritchie has positioned herself and it doesn't look like Matt Doheny is going to jump races as we move into the spring.

Assemblywoman Janet Duprey - Duprey seems to be handling her competition for the GOP nomination with stride. David Kimmel has yet to make the kind of impact that conservatives had hoped for, which may leave the door open for Paul Maroun or another candidate to jump into the race at this early stage. There is still time for Kimmel to make his case for the nomination, but each day that Kimmel lags is another day Duprey is counting her blessings.

NewzJunky.com - Just because they are better than the Watertown Daily Times.

SU Men's Basketball Team - First time the Orange have been ranked #1 in years. Congrats and Go Orange!

Kudlow v. Schumer 2010?

There is lots of action in New York State politics since the Brown victory in Massachusetts on Tuesday.

The biggest, I think, is what appears to be a draft movement by some tea-party folks and fiscal conservatives to line up support for CNBC economic commentator, Larry Kudlow, to challenge Senator Chuck Schumer. Schumer has always been incredibly popular throughout New York and is a long-time and well-established national Democrat. He won re-election in 2004 with just over 64% of the vote. Rumors are abound that Schumer could even be next in line for the Senate Majority Leader perch.

Kudlow has a personal history, but he has lots of media and money contacts. He also holds some pretty solid credentials having worked in the Reagan White House. I think a Schumer-Kudlow matchup would draw intense national attention and it would certainly be an incredible race to witness in 2010. But the question is -- would Kudlow really give up his job and make a run at it? He was quoted in Newsmax today saying, "I am honored by the talk and the consideration." You can see the Draft Kudlow site by going to www.DraftKudlow.com. He also has been writing on his own blog for a long time. You can read it here.

Bruce Blakeman is getting traction in his bid for the Republican nomination. It looks like Pataki is still AWOL on making a run. But even if Blakeman coasts to victory in the primary is it enough? Blakeman might have an opportunity to further capitalize on Senator-elect Scott Brown's victory on Tuesday, but right now all of the focus remains on the Gillibrand-Ford primary. Yesterday, the New York Times quoted Blakeman in what appears to be a populist rhetoric appealing to voters who are angry and frustrated. He asked, "You are angry? I will fight for you. You are worried? I will work to protect you. You are frustrated, and your voice will be heard..."

Maybe anything is possible after Brown's upset victory in Massachusetts. However, we saw over the last year how politics can be incredibly volatile. If the White House and Congressional Democrats can rebound and put forth a credible jobs proposal they might not be as vulnerable as conventional wisdom portrays. For now the momentum clearly seems to be with the GOP, but that momentum can evaporate quickly for any number of reasons. There is lots of time and lots of issues ahead that will play a factor. The 2010 elections are shaping up quickly to be a referendum on the Obama White House. The ball is in the President's court to a large extend and he can be a pretty good shooter when he is focused.

Here is a breakdown of how President Obama did in 2008 and how President Bush did in 2004. The numbers in both states are pretty similar.

	Massachusetts	New York
Obama 2008	61.36%	62.22%
McCain 2008	35.73%	35.65%
Kerry 2004	61.94%	56.13%
Bush 2004	36.78%	37.69%
Brown 2010	51.94%	NA
Coakley 2010	47.07%	NA

Bad Timing for Bruce Blakeman to Announce for US Senate

The big political news today is the US Senate race in Massachusetts between Democrat Martha Coakley and Republican Scott Brown. It seems like everyone is talking about Brown's surprising momentum in the polls and President Obama's visit to Boston today. On top of that story is news out in New York that Governor Paterson was allegedly seen kissing a much, much younger woman at a New Jersey restaurant.

The Paterson controversy may create a bigger opening for Andrew Cuomo's inevitable decision to run for Governor, but that controversy, combined with all eyes focused on the Massachusetts Senate race, the tragedy in Haiti and the ongoing NFL playoffs, certainly made for bad timing on Bruce Blakeman's announcement to run for US Senate. With everything going on today not many people were paying much attention to a long shot Republican named Blakeman, who was a former Nassau County Legislator, former candidate for State Comptroller and candidate for New York City Mayor last year.

For those of you unfamiliar with Blakeman, he was beaten badly by Carl McCall in 1998 for Comptroller and just last year dropped out of the mayoral race against Michael Bloomberg, who he later endorsed. At Blakeman's announcement today was Former US Senator Al D'Amato who was a prominent supporter of current US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. His remarks I am told were focused on security, cutting spending, creating jobs and promoting middle class values.

The good news for Blakeman, however, is that it appears he could have a clear run at the Republican nomination. Rudy is out, Liz Feld has taken her name out of consideration, Pataki has been MIA, Congressman King has stated publicly he is not interested in the promotion and Susan Molinari recently announced she would not make a run. If the field is totally clear it could help rally Republicans and be a shot in the arm for Blakeman's bare bones, upstart campaign.

On the Democratic side Gillibrand, in a sign of possible desperation, mixed things up late last week by coming out against the President's new proposal to tax the financial services industry. In her effort to flank Harold Ford's credibility among Wall Street executives, she may have put herself at odds with the sitting President who is doubling down on a populist approach to recover TARP money spent on freeing up credit, buying off toxic assets and bolstering support of the automotive and real estate industries. Just recently the President's spokesman announced the White House's opposition to Harold Ford's primary challenge, but with Gillibrand's public opposition to a key Obama policy decision, national support may dwindle considerably, especially in light of a new poll that came out last week showing Kirsten Gillibrand in a vulnerable position.

Gillibrand still leads Ford in a head to head match-up, but only by 19 points. More troubling, however, was Gillibrand's pitifully low 24% voter approval rating. A quarter of those polled had no opinion of Gillibrand at all. The image of Gillibrand is that she is a mediocre politician who lacks the charisma and gravitas New York Democrats are used to. According to a New York Post article today Gillibrand has, "failed to capture the hearts and minds of New Yorkers the way her outsized forbears - Bobby Kennedy, Pat Moynihan and Hilliary Clinton - did." It's going to be hard to keep up with everything in New York State politics in the next few months. I expect we will see a lot more horse-trading, posturing and positioning among politicos on both sides of the aisle as we move into February. It looks like Blakeman and Gillibrand will both have their work cut out for them in the next several months.