It's Groundhogs Day

Rise and shine little campers. Because today is Groundhog's Day! Please welcome my animal friend Marmota Monax, otherwise known as Phil the groundhog, as he comes out today to potentially see his shadow, which will determine whether spring comes early or later? The question today on when winter will end reminds me of the political atmosphere we are in.

Will Republican candidates for NY-23 announce their real candidacies in 6 weeks or in 10? Will Andrew Cuomo get into the Governors race sooner or later? Will Ford be getting into a primary fight today or tomorrow? While I love the winters up here and I hope that it stay cold and snowy for a bit longer, I can't wait for the political storms to start brewing.

We will find out soon enough, but don't forget your booties though because it's gonna be cold out there today!

Bad Timing for Bruce Blakeman to Announce for US Senate

The big political news today is the US Senate race in Massachusetts between Democrat Martha Coakley and Republican Scott Brown. It seems like everyone is talking about Brown's surprising momentum in the polls and President Obama's visit to Boston today. On top of that story is news out in New York that Governor Paterson was allegedly seen kissing a much, much younger woman at a New Jersey restaurant.

The Paterson controversy may create a bigger opening for Andrew Cuomo's inevitable decision to run for Governor, but that controversy, combined with all eyes focused on the Massachusetts Senate race, the tragedy in Haiti and the ongoing NFL playoffs, certainly made for bad timing on Bruce Blakeman's announcement to run for US Senate. With everything going on today not many people were paying much attention to a long shot Republican named Blakeman, who was a former Nassau County Legislator, former candidate for State Comptroller and candidate for New York City Mayor last year.

For those of you unfamiliar with Blakeman, he was beaten badly by Carl McCall in 1998 for Comptroller and just last year dropped out of the mayoral race against Michael Bloomberg, who he later endorsed. At Blakeman's announcement today was Former US Senator Al D'Amato who was a prominent supporter of current US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. His remarks I am told were focused on security, cutting spending, creating jobs and promoting middle class values.

The good news for Blakeman, however, is that it appears he could have a clear run at the Republican nomination. Rudy is out, Liz Feld has taken her name out of consideration, Pataki has been MIA, Congressman King has stated publicly he is not interested in the promotion and Susan Molinari recently announced she would not make a run. If the field is totally clear it could help rally Republicans and be a shot in the arm for Blakeman's bare bones, upstart campaign.

On the Democratic side Gillibrand, in a sign of possible desperation, mixed things up late last week by coming out against the President's new proposal to tax the financial services industry. In her effort to flank Harold Ford's credibility among Wall Street executives, she may have put herself at odds with the sitting President who is doubling down on a populist approach to recover TARP money spent on freeing up credit, buying off toxic assets and bolstering support of the automotive and real estate industries. Just recently the President's spokesman announced the White House's opposition to Harold Ford's primary challenge, but with Gillibrand's public opposition to a key Obama policy decision, national support may dwindle considerably, especially in light of a new poll that came out last week showing Kirsten Gillibrand in a vulnerable position.

Gillibrand still leads Ford in a head to head match-up, but only by 19 points. More troubling, however, was Gillibrand's pitifully low 24% voter approval rating. A quarter of those polled had no opinion of Gillibrand at all. The image of Gillibrand is that she is a mediocre politician who lacks the charisma and gravitas New York Democrats are used to. According to a New York Post article today Gillibrand has, "failed to capture the hearts and minds of New Yorkers the way her outsized forbears - Bobby Kennedy, Pat Moynihan and Hilliary Clinton - did." It's going to be hard to keep up with everything in New York State politics in the next few months. I expect we will see a lot more horse-trading, posturing and positioning among politicos on both sides of the aisle as we move into February. It looks like Blakeman and Gillibrand will both have their work cut out for them in the next several months.

Former Mayor of Oswego was for Democratic Primaries Before he was Against them?

Earlier this week the former Mayor of Oswego, John Sullivan, whines about not getting a real opportunity for the Democratic nomination in NY-23 against Bill Owens last summer. Sullivan puts it this way, "there had been some discussion before the process began as to who the candidate would be. Unfortuantely before I got on the train it had already left the station. That's why God made primaries we just didn't get to have one."

But if Sullivan really believes in an open primary process then why does he go on to slam Harold Ford who, just like Sullivan, only wants a primary opportunity. How can you criticize the process, then take it back and do it with a straight face? That doesn't sound like a balanced position to me. Then Sullivan goes on to say the jury is out on whether Andrew Cuomo should run for Governor. I guess it just depends on which race you are talking about and which candidate you support for higher office. Listen for yourself.

Fielding Statewide Candidates for Senate & Governor

Here's a brief update of the statewide political news from yesterday that we didn't get a chance to really cover. Races are heating up so you better buckle your seat belt for some bumpy political roads ahead.

It looks like lobbyist Susan Molinari won't be running for US Senate after all. Neither will Congressman Peter King. Molinari conveniently cited family reasons, as did King. But in King's defense he does have a pretty good job. What Republican would honestly give up a key post on the Homeland Security Committee for a chance to meet Gillibrand/Ford in round 2? And Lazio made it crystal clear that he just isn't interested in US Senate race either. Love him or hate him, Lazio's response to former Senator Alfonse D'Amato's appeal to switch races yesterday was simply funny to read. Lazio basically gave Al an upper-cut to the chin with the statement below, even though according to the New York Post it looks like Ed Cox favors Chris Collins for Governor. Here is Team Lazio's response to D'Amato,

Today's story only proves how nervous Andrew Cuomo is about Rick Lazio. His camp knows that Rick Lazio represents something new and fresh while Andrew Cuomo is part of the same old Albany gang that has failed us. To be clear, Rick Lazio is running for Governor, and under no circumstances will he switch to run for Senate. End of story.

I would believe him, except his press aide didn't put an exclamation point at the end of the statement!!! But really, it does now looks like the winner of the Lazio/Collins match-up will face the winner of the Paterson/Cuomo/Levy brawl.

And for the record, we here at What's Up NY-23 don't believe that the Levy criticism, that he is a "stalking horse" for Cuomo, is fair or warranted at this early juncture of the race. Everyone is entitled to run for public office. Whether Steve Levy's candidacy is or is not really a "stalking horse" for another candidate is a debatable point, yes. But in the end it is really Levy's choice. Besides you can never tell what might happen in those three-way races. Stranger things have happened -- remember the history of NY-23! With that said, I conclude that this is truly What's Up in NY-23. It's what I live for -- it really is New York politics at its best.

What Sources in Albany?

The story about Governor Paterson stepping down and running for Congressman Rangel's House seat in a special election, pushed by anonymous sources in Albany, sounds a little suspect to me. Forgive me if I sound a little cynical, but isn't Congressman Charles Rangel the guy defending Paterson? Rangel is the same guy who said that Andrew Cuomo won't primary challenge the state's first black governor because it would be a "moral decision?" In other words Rangel is lining up his base of support for Paterson and Cuomo shouldn't dare try to run against another black politician again.

This is how I see things play out. Miffed at both Rangel and Paterson, Cuomo's PR team kicks into high gear to pit his opponents against each other. But I don't think Rangel wants to give his House seat up. And if Rangel's ethics haven't caught up with him by now how could they ever in the future? And if President Obama can't push Paterson out of the race, then I have a hard time believing that these rumors can either. Get ready for a wild Democratic primary!

The Republican Hangover?

We aren't taking sides in the GOP knife fight that is about to ensue all across New York State and NY-23. But 2010 will be a tremendously important year for political parties all across the state and it will have a dramatic impact on the next round of political redistricting and the policies that come out of Albany and Washington for decades to come. With that in mind it is safe to say that Republicans are still suffering from "a major Scozzafava Hangover" that we aren't sure they will soon recover from anytime soon. Lets review!

US Senate:

First, there is no serious Republican candidate for Senator Kirsten Gillibrand's US Senate seat. And it is starting to get late in the game for former Governor George Pataki to get into the mix. Senator Gillibrand is locking down endorsements and support from all corners of the district, while Republicans wonder into the wilderness. And if Former Tennessee Congressman Hank Ford were to win a long-shot Democratic primary attempt it would likely be even more difficult for the Republicans to pick up the US Senate seat left by Hillary Clinton.

NYS Governor:

Regarding the Governors race we have to be fair in saying Democrats have their own in-fighting between Attorney General Andrew Cuomo and Governor David Paterson supporters, but it happens behind-closed-doors. Paterson is the first black Governor of the state and Cuomo is eyeing to take him out -- in my analysis, for right or wrong, that is a dicey move in statewide politics in New York. The Republican Party has an "okay" candidate in failed US Senate candidate Rick Lazio, and an unknown quantity in Chris Collins, an Erie County Executive, as Plan B. Rudy Giuliani and John Faso have already run away from the offer. For Lazio, it doesn't help with a major New York headline reads,"Even in G.O.P., Lazio's Bid for Governor is a Hard Sell." For Collins, it doesn't help that he is way behind in organization and fundraising. Some NY-23 chairs had fallen over themselves so much so that they set up a secret meeting with Collins that ordinary constituents weren't allowed to participate in. It sounds like NY-23 all over again. But on a positive note, even though Collins has yet to announce his candidacy, it appears as though the executive has garnered the signatures of at least 15 county chairs on a letter of endorsement including two GOP County Chairs from NY-23, Donald Coon of Jefferson County and James Ellis of Franklin County. But is that a wise move for the county chairmen after what just happened in NY-23? Voters in Upstate New York don't even know who Chris Collins is, anything about his record or what his uniting message will be. "Anyone but the Democrats?" Someone please remind the GOP that Democrats outnumber Republicans by something of a 2 to 1 margin statewide. The county chairs that make up in NY-23 may want to be careful when they are playing with fire.

More on the Collins Letter & NY-23:

Jude Seymour of the Watertown Paper highlighted this week how Nancy Martin, the St. Lawrence County GOP boss, declined to sign the Collins letter because she hasn't addressed the issue with her local committee and because the letter sounded like an endorsement.

Sounds like a good enough reason on the surface, but if Martin's logic is to first consult with her committee before making this type of decision so as not to alienate the local party faithful then why is she actively trashing Doug Hoffman, a potential Republican candidate for the NY-23 race, without first also consulting her caucus to see if they have her back? We got two angry e-mails this week from county leaders who were none to pleased with the contents of the Ogdensburg paper that Sunday.

Here is the skinny. It appears that in December Martin pushed a top-of-the-fold, front page, full-frontal attack on Doug Hoffman, just out of spite. Martin's name was littered in the text of the article with quotes like, "During the past congressional election Mr. Hoffman broke with the party," and "I don't think the Republican party has forgiven Mr. Hoffman. A lot of DeDe's supporters are still angry." She continued, "We need to have a broad-based party," then dug in a little more by pointing out that Mr. Hoffman lost in the general election to Mr. Owens, who won with only 48 percent of the vote.

And as if she hadn't made her point clear enough, Mrs. Martin dropped her opposition language and revealed her true vindictive character by stating that while the 11 county Republicans party chairs in the 23rd District drew sharp criticism from outside the district for not supporting Mr. Hoffman's candidacy, the reality is that Mr. Hoffman was among the bottom of the nine candidates who were questioned by party leaders during four public interviews held across Northern New York. "Republicans aren't going to embrace him. Republicans are looking for a more electable candidate." We were thinking that maybe Martin was referring to an incumbent Assemblywoman from Gouvernor, but we were actually referred to another story in the same paper on that same day, in which Martin was quoted as saying favorable things about another potential NY-23 candidate, Matthew Doheny. Doheny, another top-tier candidate with an ability to raise money, was able to draw nearly 100 supporters to a small-dollar fundraiser for his election campaign in Watertown last month.

Conclusion:

The problems at the state level with recruitment are one problem. Local disenfranchisement is another. Infighting and throwing fellow Republicans under the bus in the local press is yet another. And dissatisfaction with the direction of the Republican Party is a whole different animal, too. But this hangover is not likely to go away in NY-23 when activists are complaining that they are fed up with the local Republican party chairs' complete intolerance, systematic dysfunction and strong-arm tactics. Maybe post-Scozzafava, Republican leaders don't have enough confidence in themselves to find a good candidate to challenge Addie Russell and Darrel Aubertine. Or maybe it is the potential candidates who don't have enough confidence in their county leaders to put their name and reputation on the ballot.

As we see the dynamics unfold in Clinton and St. Lawrence Counties we can be sure controversy will begin to brew in the others. And there are real undertones of a Republican grassroots rebellion like we have never seen before. For NY-23, some in the GOP camp fear that the Scozzafava hangover might be here to stay past election day 2010. There is a pill Republican leaders can take to cure their hangover, but it is an awful tough one to swallow.

Interview with Democrat Ted "Ezra" Ford

Our goal with this site is to hear all sides of the debate on the left, right and center so that we can bring forth new ideas and positive discussion to our friends and neighbors in NY-23. And we were happy to connect with Ted "Ezra" Ford of the Jefferson County Democratic Party as we begin this journey. For those of you who may not know, and for those who want a reminder, Ford is the past Jefferson County Democratic Committee Chair, a former Democratic candidate for the NYS Assembly in 1998 and also the Jefferson County Legislature in 2000. He is most certainly "in the know" of Democratic politics in NY-23, so here we go!

Buggs Buddy Question: Ted, thank you for agreeing to taking the time to participate in our interview and thanks also for highlighting our new site on your your page,www.jeffersondemocrat.org. I am sure our readers are very interested in learning about your thoughts on NY-23, local politics and the direction of the Democratic Party. Please share with us when you first started your site and how it has developed since its inception. Why did you decide to start your site?

Ted "Ezra" Ford from Jefferson Democrat Response: Thanks for asking. I'm flattered. The blog I run began almost five years ago as an effort to just stir the hell out of a stagnant, moribund political pot because I thought it needed some jostling around. There was no blog like ours on the local web then. Originally we called ourselves Danger Democrat (DD), and brought a conscious case of big attitude to the local political atmosphere. Other bloggers adopted the strident style and in reaction Jefferson Democrat (JD) became a little calmer in presenting an always progressive viewpoint. We are a very small site. The meter reads about 200 or so page views a week. But thats fine.

BB: Obviously Democrats picked up a big win in NY-23 with Bill Owens beating Dede Scozzafava and Doug Hoffman several weeks ago, a seat that hasn't been held in a very long time by a Democrat. Can you tell us what you think are some of the other major accomplishments that Democrats have seen in Northern New York in the past year. What do you think Bill Owens' chances of keeping the seat in 2010? And if you want to answer this -- which Republican opponent do you think would be the hardest and easiest for Owens to go up against?

TEF: Democrats have pushed forward a lot. This year Mark Bellardini in St. Lawrence County led the Party to a numeric enrollment advantage. WhooHa! As Billy would say, "That’s huge." The actual geographic spot that JD calls home has a Democratic Assemblywoman, a Democratic State Senator and a Democratic Congressman. Ten years ago there would have been very few who would have suggested that the Democrats could have won even one of those seats. And even more important by winning those seats the area now has a voice in the majority caucuses in each of the legislatures. That means we have representatives with substantial clout instead of the bygone bystanders.

Of course, Bill Owens is the odds on choice to repeat this year. What would lead anyone think otherwise? For my money the Congressman would probably have to beat himself to lose and it appears that isn't very likely. The Republican Party is first going to have to sort out its ideological inconsistencies and make internal accommodations before any challenger could begin to mount a reasonable bid.

BB: What are the main policy issues you are focused on and will focus on at www.jeffersondemocrat.org and why do you think those are important issues for voters in our region?

TEF: My main area of focus and concern is always progressive politics generally. May I quote JFK when he was asked derisively about being a liberal?

If by a “Liberal” they mean someone who looks ahead and not behind, someone who welcomes new ideas without rigid reactions, someone who cares about the welfare of the people – their health, their housing, their schools, their jobs, their civil rights, and their civil liberties – someone who believe we can break through the stalemate and suspicions that grip us in our politics abroad, if that is what they mean by a “Liberal,” then I’m proud to say I’m a “Liberal.”

BB: Are you supporting any particular candidate for Governor in 2010? There seems to be a lot of anxiety over the tenure of Governor David Paterson? Do you think voters in Upstate New York are looking for someone different like Andrew Cuomo or are they are satisfied with Paterson for now?

TEF: Its way, way too early to think about a Democrat candidate for Governor. David Paterson will be mainly judged by his own party by the success of his budget presentation to the legislature. That begins with the State of the State on Wednesday. Andrew Cuomo is polling well, but as soon he declares candidacy prior to the Convention he'll be plagued by the same questions being asked of Paterson. Frankly, he may not want to answer those questions. I don't have a favorite.

BB: What candidates or local leaders are you most excited about and who do you see as rising stars of the Democratic Party in Upstate New York?

TEF: My pick for a rising democratic star is my boss, Assemblywoman Addie Russell. I'm a part time constituent liaison in her Watertown office and every day I'm there I get to see the intellect, the humanity, the political awareness of a really strong emerging player. Last year as a Freshman she was a press pick for a list called 'The top 40 under 40' in Albany. They can see it too. She led the Freshmen with chaptered legislation she sponsored. I'm paid for about 10 hours a week and volunteer about 20 more. She is truly worth it.

BB: The Republican Party in NY-23 seems to be contemplating its future direction and how to manage its moderate and conservative interests? What do you think about the direction of the Democratic Party and do you see the Democratic Party having to deal with similar competing interests within its party?

TEF: Decades ago Will Rogers said, "I don't belong to any organized political party. I'm a Democrat." It’s still true. Democrats have a history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. We've done it many times with infamous, sometimes annoyingly petty, infighting. Just like the elephants in 23 last time. Of course there are competing interests in our party. We are a little different than the Republicans though. We have gotten used to that stuff over the years. A person in my party can be sure of only one thing. Whatever you present another Dem will probably disagree.

BB: Thank you for your time. Is there anything else you would like our readers to know about you and the Jefferson County Democratic Party that might be of interest to our readers?

TEF: I would refer you to the official blog of the Jefferson County Democratic Committee called North Country Democrat,www.northcountrydemocrat.blogspost.com. Current Chair Sean Hennessey does a good job with the official party line. Thank you for the opportunity to be interviewed. Good luck with your blog Buggs and be prepared to be picked on. It’s in the nature of the folks that read this stuff to pick any scabs they can find. God love em. And about your last name, Mr. Buddy...I think it could be an adenoid flareup.

BB: Ted, thanks for your insight and outlook on politics in NY-23. I look forward to future discussions and best of luck to you.

One question we will have to get an answer from Ted on eventually is who he thinks is the toughest Republican candidate to go up against Owens. He'll have to get back to us on that.