Hoffman Shows His Cards

Posted at the top of NewzJunky.com is a link showing Doug Hoffman now in the race for NY-23. That would make Hoffman the first Republican in NY-23 to actually quit dancing around the district, testing the water temperature with just his toes. And to highlight his independent streak, Hoffman comes out of the gate as a uniter seeking three different political lines. It appears that the congressional hopeful is taking the gloves off and wants to show people he is serious. It is a bold move to be the first candidate to enter these rough political waters and by going first, it shows that Hoffman really wants it.

However, the big question remains as to whether the GOP establishment will be amendable to accepting Doug Hoffman as their Republican nominee. He is now putting himself out there, asking for their support and has put all of his cards down on the table. And by the looks of things Hoffman isn't bluffing. He has a good hand of cards and a groundswell of Republican, Conservative and Independent grassroots voters backing him. But insiders believe the GOP County Chairs in NY-23, who picked Dede Scozzafava last year, are apprehensive about giving this political newcomer, who won over 46% of the district buried on line D last year, a chance on their ballot.

Now as Kenny Rogers would say, "for a taste of your whiskey I will give some advice..."and this advice is for the 11 Republican county chairs to seriously consider: How will you feel if your leadership provokes a messy and fractured Republican primary that agitates the competition so much that it allows Bill Owens to win in November? And how will the county chairs feel if the Republican Party misses taking back the majority of the US House of Representatives by one Republican vote because of a loss in NY-23? The advice I give to you is simply the moto that Kenny Rogers gives to all of us in life: "You've got to know when to hold 'em, you've got to know when the fold 'em, know when to walk away, know when to run. You never count your money when your sitting at the table. There will be time enough for counting, when the dealings done."

And there is an old proverb that politics knows no humility. But maybe that is the characteristic most needed in our political conversation as we move closer to the 2010 elections. Maybe if we look for humility instead of looking at people as problems, we will be successful as Republicans. Maybe if we look to the future instead of the past, we can find hope again. Maybe if we look through the rhetoric and the spin, we will find true leadership. Doug Hoffman is clearly looking to unite a movement that could change the course of politics throughout NY-23 all the way down the ballot to the most local of races for the Republican Party. He deserves that opportunity and he deserves the chance to earn our respect and our vote. Lets give him that benefit at the outset.

He proved something to Mayor Graham today. Just a few weeks ago Mayor Graham of the great City of Watertown said that the first candidate to show he had the guts to get into the mix would gain an advantage locally because people want to see passion instead of political posturing. Doug can now say he took Mayor Graham up on that challenge. While there is no doubt that other credible and worthy challengers will emerge in this contest for the Republican nomination soon, it is well known that to build a winning coalition in the expansive and rural 23rd, it takes time, money and hard work to earn the people's trust. Hoffman is first out of the gate and he even has a new website.

In addition, this week seems like this is a good week to make the formal announcement considering a recent New York poll showed most New Yorkers are ashamed of the recent political scandals that have rocked our state. It is a swipe at incumbency and the old style business of politics. No one wants to see how the sausage is made, but we are seeing everything out in the open recently.

According to the poll, "Seventy percent of voters agreed that New York has never been more dysfunctional, and by a 54% to 41% margin, voters also say that what's going on in Albany makes them "embarrassed" to call themselves New Yorkers." Add that poll to a list of political grassroots frustration emerging from the Paterson and Massa scandals, and dissatisfaction with federal spending and the health care push-through happening in Washington, and you can see the potential for a populist uprising in support of a candidate like Hoffman.

Stepping forward with a strong economic message may be good politics, but going first also has its clear disadvantages. Watch for competing campaigns to come out swinging. But landing a solid punch could prove difficult for any would-be competitor, especially at this early juncture. Hoffman has his cards down on the table and now it is time for the rest of competition to show their cards. They have got to know when to hold em and know when to fold em, when to walk away, and know when to run. The money is on the table. Who is in this game to win it?