Franklin GOP Supports Candidate Who Dresses Like a Terrorist?

File this one under ugly political optics.

Franklin County Republican Committee Chairman James Ellis is supporting Democrat Executive Steve Levy for New York State Governor. Levy was a Democrat until just a few weeks ago when he decided he wanted to run for Governor. One could argue that Levy is worse than Dede Scozzafava in more ways than one. After all, Scozzafava may have dressed up in weird pink outfits, but at least she didn't dress up as a terrorist!

It is repulsive to think that Chairman James Ellis would abandon the voters of Franklin county who believe in a free and strong America so he can cozy up with liberal Democrats. Who supports candidates that dress up as terrorists anyways? Now rumors are circulating that Ellis is planning on supporting Mr. Wall Street Banker-Lawyer Matt Doheny for NY-23 over Conservative - Republican Doug Hoffman.

Several other Republican county chairs in NY-23 are also supporting Levy and Doheny over Republican Rick Lazio. The questions one has to ask is: are Ellis and some of the other county chairs trying to fracture the Republican Party on purpose? Why can't the county committees just do their job and then endorse the winner of the Republican Party once the fight is over? Does Doheny also support Steve Levy for Governor over Rick Lazio?

The county committees were never originally set up to tear the party apart before the primary happened. The county committees exist to be a support network to recruit candidates, help organize events, educate the public on Republican ideals, push Republican policies, and help fund candidates once they earn the right to be the Republican nominee for political office.

Now these committees function to give credibility and cover to Democrats who dress up like Osama Bin Ladin and carpetbaggers from New York City who traded stocks and dividends on Wall Street. In a sense, the county committees are losing credibility because of their ulterior motives, failure to communicate with the grassroots, uncanny inability to win local races, a capacity to fundamentally tear the GOP apart, and weak leadership.

Update, 4/14/10: Several individuals have e-mailed and said that you can go back 20+ years into anyone's history and find something that disqualifies them for public office. However, it should be pointed out that when Levy dressed up as an unrepentant terrorist on October 31, 1983, it was only 8 days after 241 American Servicemen had died serving our country in Beirut, Lebanon as Islamic terrorists bombed the Marine barracks on October 23, 1983. What sort of a person would show that kind of rash humor just days after the biggest death toll of American service members the US experienced since Vietnam. Levy is not just a bad comedian. He is bad for New York and the Republican Party.

Matt Doheny Uses Scozzafava's Insider Tactics and Buys Supporters

If you thought the backroom deals and insider political maneuvers that were exposed in the aftermath of the NY-23 GOP Special Election last summer were over, think again!

The Republican Party has just launched another major offensive against the Conservative-Republican candidate, Doug Hoffman, in retaliation for his entering the NY-23 congressional race last fall as an alternative candidate to liberal Republican Dede Scozzafava and Democrat Bill Owens. Tonight, just days after George Joseph resigned from his position as Chairman of the Oneida County Republican Party, the local Republican party quickly organized a Monday night meeting to offer its endorsement to rival candidate Matt Doheny. The county endorsement is perplexing to those who will remember that Hoffman ran up the score in Oneida County with 3,225 votes to Owens' 2,243 and Scozzafava's paltry 459. But apparently the Oneida Republicans want to give it away in exchange for something else.

And so again, it appears the fix may in with the establishment good old boys club in NY-23. The news came to us from a local Republican activist who just called and said he heard that the whole meeting was set without even giving Doug Hoffman a hearing, and that he overheard a conversation where it was discussed how Hoffman was purposely not even invited or made aware of the meeting with the county committee so he wouldn’t be able to make his case to the members.

The local activist went on to say that, "the endorsement proceedings I just witnessed over here in Oneida County were the least transparent I have ever seen on the local level. I knew that backroom deals and shady political operations like this existed, but never have I seen something quite like this happen within our own committee. The whole affair tonight wasn't even an honest attempt to be fair. What were the local Republican leaders thinking? It was like some of them were acting like Democrats trying to write a health care bill behind closed doors in the dead of night. Why were the local county officials so afraid of inviting Doug Hoffman so he could make his case? There is obviously something else behind the endorsement that people didn’t know about yet, and it has got to be exposed."

In fairness, the Oneida County Republican insiders weren’t the first Republican leaders to prematurely throw their hat in Doheny’s corner. Just this past week, right as Doheny officially announced his candidacy, he took the endorsements of three other county chairmen in the district, Ron Jackson of Essex County, Donald Lee of Clinton County, and Donald Coon of Jefferson County, who were part of the Scozzafava crowning last fall.

And the local ring-leader of the 2009 Special Election Circus, James Ellis of Franklin County who set up the process for Scozzafava's victory last summer, just so happens to be publicly supporting a registered Democrat, Steve Levy, for the New York Gubernatorial race. Ellis is always doing his best to throw Hoffman under the bus each and every chance he gets near a reporter. So it is clear there is an organized effort by the county Republican leadership to block Hoffman organizationally and in the media.

The public support of inside party leaders is a function of at least two things that we can identify at the moment: 1) a resentment of conservatism in general and Doug Hoffman in particular, a man who utterly embarrassed and exposed the shady backroom dealings of the local Republican establishment, and 2) money.

Not only have Republican leaders been looking for an alternative to Hoffman in 2010, but they have now found an alternative who is willing and able to float large checks to local candidates and party leaders in exchange for public support. Public records show that Doheny has written nearly $30,000 in checks to county chairs, local elected officials, and the state party to gain influence and early momentum in his bid to beat Hoffman for the Republican nomination.

Another source told me that, "Doheny is willing to hand out money to anyone who is willing to help him, a sort of political quid pro quo. He likes to give money to candidate he thinks will help him down the line. And by looking at his records it shows he doesn't have any principles. Why else would he give Dede Scozzafava $2,400 for her election bid?" In other words, some are making the subtle claim that Doheny is aiming to win a congressional seat the old fashioned way – he is going to buy his seat.

But there are clear disadvantages to running a campaign on the inside lane. First off, the local Republican Party has failed miserably to win the 48th State Senate seat and the 118th Assembly seat. And the Oneida County Coup tonight is really a stunning example of what voters rejected last year and what helped propel Doug Hoffman into the national conservative spotlight. For a local county party like Oneida's, that can only boast nearly 7,000 Republican voters, to quickly circle the wagons make a public endorsement on behalf of all its members for Doheny's campaign shows a remarkable ability to throw the rules out the window and forget their 2009 debacle.

For those political animals who want to look to the history books on how we ended up with Scozzafava it started the same way. One report of the cussed up nomination process last year stated that it was, “orchestrated by two powerful liberal members of the local Republican Party organization, and was aided and abetted by several politically inexperienced local county leaders who failed to grasp the tactical significance of shunning the Conservative Party and did not fully understand the details of their nominee’s record, or her potential vulnerabilities…”

Unfortunately, those who forget history are often times bound to repeat it. And this post is just barely scratching the surface on how some local Republican leaders in NY-23 are up to their old antics again this year. The real significance of the Oneida County Coup is that now voters and Republican party activists are willing to speak out against the county leaders who got us into this similar mess with Scozzafava in 2009. And I’m being told that those Republican activists are not willing to go down without making a stink about the sausage making factories that are the local Republican County Committees. These kinds of strong arm tactics and secret endorsement meetings are not the way for Republicans to win elections in 2010.

NY-23 GOP Primary Race Starts Today

Paul Maroun has made it public that he is out of the race for NY-23. That leaves two candidates for the GOP primary in NY-23. Doug Hoffman and Matt Doheny, who today is "officially announcing" his entrance into the race. His campaign website, www.dohenyforcongress.com, is still under construction, but I am sure it will be up in no time.

Mayor Graham says he is hoping for a William Jennings Bryan pitchfork speech where Doheny will promise not to "crucify us upon a cross of gold," a reference to the July 9, 1896 speech at the Democratic National Convention where Bryan essentially promised "free Obama bucks" (in those days silver coins) to artificially increase inflation so that freeloaders could pay back their mortgages on rocky farm land. Believe it or not, the Democrats thought it was trendy to be populist and down with Big Government back in the late 19th Century, too.

Forgetting for a moment that the silver-to-gold ratio policy was a Big Government precursor to today's bailouts and Pelosi stimulus dollars, I still don't believe that Doheny has the rhetorical repertoire or the policy knowledge to make a populist case for the Republican nomination. The mayor is right though in his assessment that Doheny needs to catch lightening in a bottle and gin up the grassroots. But if I had to guess the jabs of red meat the Mayor will hear will be directed mainly at Owens for his vote on health care and card check.

But herein lies the problem: Doheny is not capable of making the populist case for supply-side economics or defeating the old establishment guard, which is what he would need to do if he wants to win. That's Hoffman's conservative turf and its an unfamiliar arena for a Wall-Street Banker-Lawyer like Doheny to seriously contend in. If Doheny attacks Hoffman it will likely be on the issue of Hoffman not promising to commit to the winner of the GOP primary in September. But there is an easy and reasonable response to that line of attack which I am surprised nobody has been talking about. The response is simple -- the winner needs to win the respect of the voters, not the other candidates.

There was an interesting quote I read in a recent article on the Republican primary for the Iowa Governor race that compares similarly to Hoffman's strategic decision to not commit to supporting the Republican nominee in NY-23 race. For background, Bob Vander Platts, a Hoffman conservative, is running in the GOP primary for Governor against former Governor Terry Branstad, an establishment Republican. Vander Platts, like Doug Hoffman, has been noncommittal about supporting whoever wins the GOP nod in Iowa. Vander Platts says, "Whoever wins the nomination needs to authentically earn the support of his peers... blind allegiances [to party] really play out in taking another candidate's base of support for granted, and I don't think any one of us can afford that."

That statement is very true and is something the Republican party in NY-23 should seriously reflect upon in the coming weeks ahead. Blind allegiances, smoke and mirror politics, and back room deals are no longer accepted practice in politics today. Voters want humility, transparency, a candidate who sides with the people instead of with the media, a fresh candidate like Hoffman.

Candidates like Doheny and establishment Republican guru's have no business making threats, or taking entire blocks supporter for granted, whether they be ideological groups of people, geographic regions or counties, or otherwise. And if you thought 2009 was the year of the grassroots insurgency in NY-23 just wait until the fall. 2010 is the year of the Tea Party and the grassroots Republican-Conservative majority. May the best candidate of the people win, and may the winning campaign not bury the voters under fragile stones encrypted with broken promises.

NY-23 GOP Chairs Realize It's Hoffman or Owens

Today the Watertown Daily Times has another piece up about Doug Hoffman having the Conservative line for the 2010 NY-23 congressional race. It's a great story for Doug, but I can't help but think the Watertown Daily Times is beating a dead horse. We have read this same story about 100 times over the past few months and it hasn't changed a thing -- Hoffman is running for Congress whether the local Republican leaders sitting in the Ivory Tower want him to or not. This fact was so obvious to Assemblyman Will Barclay that he dropped out of the race for NY-23 because he recognized he couldn't win so long as Doug Hoffman was at the table.

Nancy Martin, the St. Lawrence County GOP Chair, may be the smartest of the Republican bunch who understands that the Republican Party now has an important choice to make. Today she stated clearly that, "Our primary objective is to beat Bill Owens. We can't do that with a split between the Republican line and the Conservative line." And as long as people like Martin continue to concede defeat to Owens unless the Republican and Conservative lines are merged, that means the Republican Party only has two options.

The choice is clear: Republican leaders can run with Doug Hoffman and unite the Republican and Conservative parties to beat Democrat Bill Owens, or they can pick Matt Doheny, a moderate carpetbagger, and know they are handing a victory to Owens. It took poor Don Coon, the Jefferson County GOP Chair, until today to say what Republicans everywhere in NY-23 are thinking. He said simply, "Put Doug Hoffman on the line -- or lose... the fix is in." In fairness Donald Coon doesn't like his choice, but at least he is being honest in his assessment.

The Republican chairs know Hoffman is running and they can't legally stop him from doing so. That's a beautiful thing for American democracy. Does the Republican Party really have any business in telling someone whether they can or can't run as a Conservative anyways? Do the NY-23 Republican leaders want to be remembered as the clan who gave Owens his path to victory in 2010 after having voted for ObamaCare twice?

The holdouts like James Ellis, the Franklin County GOP chair, should just give up their crusade to tear down Hoffman by saying things like, "If you choose otherwise (i.e. Matt Doheny), Doug Hoffman is going to make sure the GOP candidate loses." That's some great spin by Ellis, but does he think voters are stupid? People know that what Ellis is really saying is, "If we pick someone other than Hoffman we are most likely going to lose and it will be all our fault, but I don't want to take the blame so I am setting up Hoffman to be the fall guy."

What Ellis needs to understand is that a lot of people want Hoffman to run as a Conservative if he doesn't run on both party lines. There are a lot of people who would be infuriated with Hoffman if he abandoned the very people who have donated, volunteered, and supported him over the last several months. It's not so hard to understand Hoffman's position when you think it through. It just makes you wonder if Ellis wants Owens to win because he has an ulterior motive.

What Martin and Coon are willing to admit, but what Ellis still refuses to accept, is that Doug Hoffman out-played them in this technical game we call politics. And because Hoffman has the people on his side, he has no reason to abandon them or the Conservative Party. Hoffman is looking to win by addition. Hoffman haters want to force him into losing (and by extension themselves) by subtraction. No one can credibly blame Hoffman for his decision because it is, in fact, the only winning strategy.

Those who don't understand it, or refuse to accept it, just need to get over themselves because the race will be won by Hoffman or Owens. And if the race for NY-23 turns into a 3-way race and you are unhappy with the result look no further than James Ellis and the other holdouts in his tiny corner. The choice is clear and Republicans get to make it.

While Leaving NY-23 Race Will Barclay Beats Up on Political Cynicism

Assemblyman Will Barclay got out of the race for NY-23 tonight. The main theme that Barclay leaves us with is that he did not want to skirt his "duty" to the New York State Assembly which is currently in disarray. In an e-mail message sent out to supporters tonight Barclay took a hard shot at what he describes as the cynicism of politics.

Barclay eloquently wrote, "I fully expect and resign myself to accepting that my citing duty as the reason for my decision will be dismissed by some, perhaps by many, with cynical comments. So be it... It was, I freely admit, very tempting to excuse myself from the ever worsening woes of Albany." That kind of open and honest dialogue is what voters are longing for in today's politics. It was a theme the former candidate could have utilized earlier on in his bid to gain traction for the Republican nomination.

For sure Barclay's decision to leave the race for NY-23 is a bit of an indication of how hard it is to compete against a populist, conservative Republican juggernaut in Doug Hoffman and a self-financing Banker-Lawyer from Manhattan in Matt Doheny. Regardless, Barclay may still have a very bright future in politics and What's Up NY-23 wants to wish Mr. Barclay the best in his effort to represent the people of the 124th Assembly district in Albany.

Hoffman Shows His Cards

Posted at the top of NewzJunky.com is a link showing Doug Hoffman now in the race for NY-23. That would make Hoffman the first Republican in NY-23 to actually quit dancing around the district, testing the water temperature with just his toes. And to highlight his independent streak, Hoffman comes out of the gate as a uniter seeking three different political lines. It appears that the congressional hopeful is taking the gloves off and wants to show people he is serious. It is a bold move to be the first candidate to enter these rough political waters and by going first, it shows that Hoffman really wants it.

However, the big question remains as to whether the GOP establishment will be amendable to accepting Doug Hoffman as their Republican nominee. He is now putting himself out there, asking for their support and has put all of his cards down on the table. And by the looks of things Hoffman isn't bluffing. He has a good hand of cards and a groundswell of Republican, Conservative and Independent grassroots voters backing him. But insiders believe the GOP County Chairs in NY-23, who picked Dede Scozzafava last year, are apprehensive about giving this political newcomer, who won over 46% of the district buried on line D last year, a chance on their ballot.

Now as Kenny Rogers would say, "for a taste of your whiskey I will give some advice..."and this advice is for the 11 Republican county chairs to seriously consider: How will you feel if your leadership provokes a messy and fractured Republican primary that agitates the competition so much that it allows Bill Owens to win in November? And how will the county chairs feel if the Republican Party misses taking back the majority of the US House of Representatives by one Republican vote because of a loss in NY-23? The advice I give to you is simply the moto that Kenny Rogers gives to all of us in life: "You've got to know when to hold 'em, you've got to know when the fold 'em, know when to walk away, know when to run. You never count your money when your sitting at the table. There will be time enough for counting, when the dealings done."

And there is an old proverb that politics knows no humility. But maybe that is the characteristic most needed in our political conversation as we move closer to the 2010 elections. Maybe if we look for humility instead of looking at people as problems, we will be successful as Republicans. Maybe if we look to the future instead of the past, we can find hope again. Maybe if we look through the rhetoric and the spin, we will find true leadership. Doug Hoffman is clearly looking to unite a movement that could change the course of politics throughout NY-23 all the way down the ballot to the most local of races for the Republican Party. He deserves that opportunity and he deserves the chance to earn our respect and our vote. Lets give him that benefit at the outset.

He proved something to Mayor Graham today. Just a few weeks ago Mayor Graham of the great City of Watertown said that the first candidate to show he had the guts to get into the mix would gain an advantage locally because people want to see passion instead of political posturing. Doug can now say he took Mayor Graham up on that challenge. While there is no doubt that other credible and worthy challengers will emerge in this contest for the Republican nomination soon, it is well known that to build a winning coalition in the expansive and rural 23rd, it takes time, money and hard work to earn the people's trust. Hoffman is first out of the gate and he even has a new website.

In addition, this week seems like this is a good week to make the formal announcement considering a recent New York poll showed most New Yorkers are ashamed of the recent political scandals that have rocked our state. It is a swipe at incumbency and the old style business of politics. No one wants to see how the sausage is made, but we are seeing everything out in the open recently.

According to the poll, "Seventy percent of voters agreed that New York has never been more dysfunctional, and by a 54% to 41% margin, voters also say that what's going on in Albany makes them "embarrassed" to call themselves New Yorkers." Add that poll to a list of political grassroots frustration emerging from the Paterson and Massa scandals, and dissatisfaction with federal spending and the health care push-through happening in Washington, and you can see the potential for a populist uprising in support of a candidate like Hoffman.

Stepping forward with a strong economic message may be good politics, but going first also has its clear disadvantages. Watch for competing campaigns to come out swinging. But landing a solid punch could prove difficult for any would-be competitor, especially at this early juncture. Hoffman has his cards down on the table and now it is time for the rest of competition to show their cards. They have got to know when to hold em and know when to fold em, when to walk away, and know when to run. The money is on the table. Who is in this game to win it?

Will Barclay Wants to be a Looney Tune?

As Buggs Buddy I think I am in the best position to say this: State Assemblyman William Barclay’s knee-jerk reactions and absurd press releases are making him look like Wile E. Coyote trying to chase down the one he will never catch, Doug Hoffman, the one who looks more and more like the Road Runner speeding to victory in NY-23.

Tonight Barclay became the newest looney tune running for federal office when he issued an attack on Doug Hoffman. Barclay’s expensive new media consultant, rumored to be former unknown Congressman Fred J. Eckert of Eagle Communications, e-mailed the statement tonight at 8:16 pm to multiple news outlets.

In the release Barclay reveals his desperation by “urging” Doug Hoffman to renounce the idea of Ron Paul running for President in 2012. Not that Hoffman has any connection to the idea after having been endorsed by several other potential 2012 presidential hopefuls including: Governor George Pataki, Governor Sarah Palin, Senator Fred Thompson, Congressman Mike Pence, Governor Tim Pawlenty and others, but it is kind of silly to read Barclay’s disunity rant.

If you read between the lines of everything that Barclay sends out (the stuff that comes in complete sentences at least) all you find is negativity and knee-jerk reactions. It’s the kind of stuff that fills the Assembly Chamber in Albany where Barclay was infected with this vitriolic incumbent disease I like to call “Albany insider-osis.”

The positive press attention Doug Hoffman received from the Syracuse paper, National Review Online, several prominent Republican bloggers and the Washington Times, has clearly demoralized the Barclay camp. But to Barclay’s credit at least he realizes the need to do something to shake up this race quickly. He can only get away with being the guy who lost Republican control of the State Senate, to Darrel Aubertine, for so long without losing people’s attention.

However, the fact that Barclay chose to attack Ron Paul instead of (oh… I don’t know) Bill Owens or Barack Obama speaks volumes about what kind of Republican he is – a Republican of disunity, a looney tune Republican. Barclay’s attacks are a function of four key things that all voters should consider.

First, Barclay is consumed with the idea of purging Republicans instead of beating the Democrats in 2010. What Barclay doesn’t understand is that his recent call for a unity pledge in NY-23 was completely undermined when his next move was to call for a purge of any fellow Republican who he disagrees with on one particular issue. In this case it is Ron Paul’s opposition to the War in Iraq. Next week it will be his opposition to Tim Pawlenty’s position of being pro-life. The week after that it will be something else absurd. The real question is: why does Barclay want to make the GOP smaller instead of uniting Republicans of all stripes behind a common goal like winning back the House in 2010?

Second, Barclay’s focus on the 2012 presidential elections shows his priorities are in the wrong place. He should be focused on winning in 2010 and bringing prosperity and economic growth back to NY-23. Barclay’s attacks are a distraction from his lack of solutions and focus on what people really care about today: better jobs, lower taxes, less spending, more credit, improved education and market-based solutions to health care.

Third, Barclay’s attacks are a sign of desperation. Doug Hoffman has the lead on money raised, grassroots support, national endorsements, online media, local press, an organized campaign team and about every other metric that could possibly be used to judge a candidates viability in a Republican primary.

Finally, Barclay’s release was absurd on its face. To insinuate that Doug Hoffman is weak on terrorism is pretty lame. After all, Barclay never spent any time in the military. Hoffman has. Hoffman’s campaign website is clear on this issue.

“We are past the point of pointing fingers over how we got to where we are in Iraq and Afghanistan. The question for us now is where do we go from here? I believe we must continue to try and turn the security and governing of Iraq over to the Iraqis. I also believe we need to continue to go after the terrorist strongholds and training bases wherever they are located. The war against terror is not over and the terrorists’ goal remains the destruction of the United States and our way of life. We must never forget this fact.”

Hoffman understands the threats we face and is committed to being a strong defender of American interests. Unlike Barclay, Hoffman was never fed by a silver spoon and he wasn’t an heir to political power like Barclay was from his father’s hard effort. Unlike Barclay, Hoffman had to make something of himself. And Hoffman is the only candidate who has military experience. That is something that military families in Fort Drum will recognize and it is an insult that Barclay would attack a veteran with such vitriol.

Barclay should apologize for throwing other people under the bus to further his own political future. Barclay does not have a campaign that can win. It could have been, but it is evolving into a campaign in desperation mode, running out of fuel. And for that reason we are moving him back to the third tier of candidates with the rest of the other looney tunes.

Hoffman Making Big News At CPAC Today

We heard several reports today by e-mail and news stories that Doug Hoffman was in Washington today building support with conservative activists at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference. Mr. Hoffman even won an award tonight, "Courage Under Fire," at the national conference which draws thousands of conservative activists and donors from around the country.

In addition, we learned that Doug Hoffman joined Dick Armey to launch the Contract From America, an effort that emulates the Contract for America that Newt Gingrich promoted upon the Conservative Revolution in 1994.

Below are two links to stories we found online from Hoffman's participation at CPAC today. It looks like Doug Hoffman might be the first candidate to make his true intention to run for Congress in NY-23. He does so making the case that he is a uniter of the various fractions of the Republican, Conservative and Tea-Party movements and he also offers a smart alternative to Representative Bill Owens, who Hoffman says is vulnerable because of his votes on government take over of health care and higher spending.

National Review Online - Hoffman Cometh

"Owens has violated every one of his campaign promises. From health care to spending, he's vulnerable." Hoffman points to Scott Brown's Senate win in Massachusetts as proof that conservatives can win in the northeast this year. "But he wasn't the first guy to drive a truck on the trail... Look for me in my '55 Chevy."

Washington Times Article - CPAC News: Hoffman to announce candidacy for NY-23 in coming weeks

"We feel very very good about it [the Hoffman campaign for the 23rd]. I think the fact that Bill Owens violated three campaign promises the day he was sworn in, like voting for the health care bill, is going to give us a lot of leverage. I intend to reunite the Republicans, Conservatives, the teaparty groups and the other activists in defeating Bill Owens this year."

Happy Presidents Day

Happy Presidents Day! For those of you who don't know, George Washington's birthday is actually on February 22nd. Abraham Lincoln's birthday is on February 12th. And Ronald Reagan's birthday is on February 6th. For some interesting background on Presidents Day check out this article that I found online today.

I thought it might be fitting to give a quick recap of a speech I heard from Assembly candidate David Kimmel, who hosted a Lincoln Celebration Dinner in Plattsburgh on Friday night. I'd say there were about 90 people in attendance for the dinner, including Doug Hoffman and a few members of the UNYTEA Party that Mark Barie organizes. Below are some excepts of Kimmel's speech titled, "A House Divided Against Itself Cannot Stand," which I encourage you to check out.

My speech tonight is titled, “A House Divided against Itself Cannot Stand.” Some might think it is a speech about Republican politics. Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, it is noteworthy that we have Republicans, Democrats, Conservatives, Independence, and Independent voters in the room... Some people forget that the Republican Party had only recently replaced the Whig Party when Lincoln gave his famous speech. I think today’s prospective candidates ignore this similarity to their own peril. In fact, I submit that a Nation that ignores its own history is on a perilous path. And it’s in that regard we can learn a lot from Lincoln’s “House Divided” speech.

Lincoln gave the speech in 1858 during the famous Lincoln-Douglas debates. He was actually running for the U.S. Senate. He said: “A house divided against itself cannot stand. I believe this government cannot endure, permanently, half slave and half free. I do not expect the Union to be dissolved — I do not expect the house to fall — but I do expect it will cease to be divided. It will become all one thing or all the other...” We can learn much from this speech and this man.

A house divided against itself cannot stand…It will become all one thing or all the other...

In hindsight we know these words were prophetic. However, in 1858 there were those who discouraged this speech. Every generation has a Chamberlain who exclaims “peace for our time.” Every generation has those who believe the words “can’t we all just get along” are better than addressing the issues of their time. There were those in Lincoln’s day as well.

As you examine the speech you realize that Lincoln wasn’t being provocative or inciting. He was speaking the truth. It cost him the election in 1858. People were doing everything possible to avoid the impending war between the states. But you cannot avoid the inevitable by ignoring it. You could not avoid the war by ignoring slavery any more than you can avoid terrorist attacks by avoiding the word terrorism or the term “War on Terror.” The simple truth is: we must face the problems of our day head on, unless it is our desire to pass the problems we have created on to the next generation of Americans.

We know this was no mere anomaly. When Lincoln issued the Emancipation Proclamation most of his cabinet was against it. They complained the timing was wrong. They claimed it would incite the South to fight harder. They complained it would alienate moderates in the North. All of this sounds familiar. We see in these decisions that Lincoln possessed an abundance of two great leadership traits: decisiveness, and initiative. It is essential that our leaders possess the bravery and fortitude to exercise these traits in order to make the right decisions because they are right, and not just politically expedient.

Abraham Lincoln was also a student of modern history. In 1812 Abigail Adams invoked these same words, “a house divided…” in a private letter to her friend regarding the enemies of our young country. In 1850 Sam Houston invoked these same words when discussing The Compromise of 1850, also about slavery.

We learn from Lincoln that it is important to know our own history and the words of our founders. As we study our founders we learn that they rejected big government. They embraced free markets. They warned against providing welfare, in favor of promoting it. They agreed that the people were the great “safe depositors” of the ultimate powers of society. They embraced virtue and discouraged vice. They rejected “influence” and acknowledged it as the antithesis of government. “Influence” was not bad government. It was “no government.” Still today, whether in Albany or Washington, we gage our politicians based on their ability to peddle or distribute influence. We consider our vote based on our belief that someone can or cannot bring home the bacon, somehow forgetting that the bacon was ours to begin with...

Today we stand on a precipice. Whether in Washington or Albany, politicians are spending the hard-earned money of our children’s children’s children. We will either be a free United States or one enslaved to debt. We will either be free to determine our course and live the dream our founders envisioned, or we will be a nation of mediocrity, bound to the state in return for our daily bread. We will either promote the general welfare of the people or provide it. Ladies and gentlemen…we cannot be both...

As I look at you tonight I am hopeful. I see great New Yorkers who are alert. I see people from New Jersey, Virginia, and Massachusetts who have rejected the alternate narration of those who seek to remake the United States. I see the great people of the North Country who are committed to the preservation of our State and Nation. I see people who are ready and able to show our leaders the way. And if our politicians will not abide, I see people who will show them the door.

Kimmel draws some interesting parallels from Lincoln's "House Divided" speech and government's approach to providing the general welfare of its people today. He also suggests that our founders were weary of big government approaches to policy-making. It sounds like a theme the Tea Party movement is united against. Kimmel's reflection on Lincoln's leadership qualities, the need to be decisive and avoid political expedient decision-making, foreshadows what he believes to be Albany and Washington's inability to make the tough and difficult decisions for the future of our state and country.

While I don't think Kimmel is suggesting that our country is as divided and torn over the growth of government as it was over the question of slavery, I do think he might be tapping into the national sentiment that our leaders need to make some tough decisions regarding how to deal with the size and scope of our government. And Kimmel is right that those decisions ultimately lay in the hands of the people who are the "great depositors of the powers of society." The people will decide if we follow the current path we are on, or if they will entrust a new set of leaders committed to challenging the status quo in state and federal government. It is a great question for citizens everywhere to ponder as we celebrate this Presidents Day.

Timing the Race for NY-23

Mayor Graham has an interesting take on the two-step campaign that will be waged for the NY-23 race this year. First, the Republican candidates will have a primary that happens on Tuesday, September 14th. Then the GOP winner will go up against incumbent Congressman Bill Owens on Tuesday, November 2nd.

The timing here is important because the district is so large and rural. Mayor Graham had it right that this race will take a lot of organization and old-fashioned shoe leather. While we are still seven months out from the primary, that is not a lot of time to build an aggressive grassroots team across a huge rural district like NY-23. And seven months is not a lot of time if you want to be taken seriously as a candidate who can beat an incumbent like Bill Owens.

It is also getting really late for any other candidates to get into the ring at this late juncture. At least three candidates: Barclay, Doheny and Hoffman, are building staff and attending some local events. It would be a fair prediction to suggest that no other candidate will be taken seriously as the campaigns shift into second gear. For some candidates, the longer they wait to officially get into the political ring, the harder it becomes to be competitive in building the name ID and trust that will be needed to bring down Bill Owens in November.

Doug Hoffman has a head start because of the momentum he built in the special election last year. He likely has an impressive file of donors, volunteers, and supporters who helped him become competitive in the last two weeks of the race last year. Hoffman is the only candidate with a campaign website and he is dominating the new political battlefront, online campaigning. Hoffman's infrastructure will go a long way because the file his campaign developed last year is fairly updated, having been created just months ago, and ready to be tapped into.

Will Barclay also an advantage as we move into the second half of February. He has good name recognition in the western end of the district where he is an incumbent Assemblyman. He also has some name ID in the central part of NY-23 from his failed State Senate run against Darrel Aubertine. Barclay's challenge is to become more well known in the eastern and central part of the state where he hasn't been as active in politics. That task can be accomplished in seven months, but he will need to start moving quickly.

It would be to Matt Doheny's strategic advantage if he officially entered the race sooner rather than later. Based on the context of Mayor Graham's blog post today, I would expect Doheny to make that move rather soon because of his political necessity -- he has to do something to shake this race up!

Doheny, the New York investor, has been away from the district for almost ten years, and while he has maintained two homes here (one in Watertown and one on an Island on the river) it will presumably be much harder for him to build the kind of infrastructure that already exists for the two other leading GOP contenders. Voters who have met Doheny that we have talked to have called him a candidate that is "a bit elitist and very mysterious." Getting into the thick of the campaign could help Doheny build new trust, stronger alliances and improve his low name ID. These negatives were evident in the latest poll that came out last month showing Doheny in 4th place with only 2% favorable name ID. NY-23 is a big district and it takes a lot of time to meet the voters, build their trust and introduce yourself. With that said, Doheny does have a team in place and is raising early money, albeit from Wall Street bankers and traditional Democratic donors.

These races, especially multi-candidate primaries, are hard to predict. However, with a protracted calendar the advantage would seem to lay with Hoffman and then Barclay, which may give us some insight into why both candidates have yet to make an official declaration of their intent to run yet. With less time to compete for voters, both Hoffman and Barclay (in that order) will have a competitive advantage in rallying their pre-existing networks of political support, compared to other candidates who are still on the sidelines and just now beginning to make their first-time introductions.

Certainly money means a lot, but all candidates have the same amount of time, which is finite in politics. How well each candidate choses to strategize the schedule will play a big part in who gets to face Bill Owens for the federal seat, which will always be remembered as Congressman John McHugh's old job.

Mayor Graham Still Can't ID Me

A few weeks ago Mayor Graham speculated that I was Scott Gray and he must have figured out by now that he was wrong. Today Mayor Graham asks if What's Up NY-23 is a "house organ for the Hoffman campaign" because of a "clear effort to cast Doheny and Barclay as pro choice (aka Dede clones)?" First let me say very clearly that this is not a pro-Hoffman blog. I just happened to provide commentary based on a publicly released poll that is based on fact and political analysis.

Second, the fact that Mayor Graham is already trying to spin or defend the assumption that both Doheny and Barclay are in fact moderates raises questions of its own. Now I'm not saying that being a moderate is good or bad. It just is what it is. If two moderates are running against one conservative, clearly they are going to split the vote and leave the conservatives with one place to go. That was the true intention of my blog post. The same would be true if there were two conservatives running against one moderate. Conservatives would split the vote and leave the moderate with the prize of winning the primary.

On that note, if you read my blog post from yesterday you will see that I never made any claim that either candidate was a Dede clone. For one, they are both better looking and neither supports card check legislation, homosexual marriage or is seeking the Working Families Party nod as far as I am aware. I wrote yesterday in the first paragraph of my post that I have not yet taken sides in either the primary or the general election.

On the issue of both Barclay and Doheny being pro-choice, however, I think that point is rather obvious. For better or worse, both Doheny and Barclay are, in fact, pro-choice Republicans. Neither potential candidate has ever claimed to be pro-life and neither have refuted numerous media reports that they are pro-choice. When 64% of Republican primary voters describe themselves as pro-life, that creates a wedge that these candidates will have to deal with in their own way.

As for Barclay his support for abortion is on record. In 2006 the National Organization of Women gave him a 100% pro-choice score for his favorable abortion votes.

Regarding Doheny, Sal Gentile with the Capitol Report, a must-read paper of the Albany government and political community, wrote as recently as December 15th that he is, "a pro-choice Manhattan lawyer who has already channeled as much as half a million dollars into his campaign account, has won the favor of more moderate Republicans because he would not have to depend on outside interest groups for money." Political IV said, Republicans at the VFW in Gouverneur on July 14th of last year were "caught off guard with his position on the hot button pro-life versus pro-choice issue." The Riehl World Blog also called Doheny "pro-choice." Doheny has never disputed this record even though he has been prone to release statements ad nauseam anytime another candidate says anything or puts out a statement. He has not corrected the record yet, so I have to assume he is pro-choice according to these reports and what he is personally saying to people in NY-23.

But the important thing I want to get across is that the claim that I am somehow trying to influence the election in Hoffman's favor is short-sighted. If I really wanted to sabotage other candidates I would write about how both Barclay and Doheny think they can win this election the old fashioned way -- they both think they can buy off the people's votes. The Barclay family, I presume, has all sorts of money to contribute to this race. And Doheny gave $10,000 to the New York Federal Republican Campaign Committee less than three months ago. He also gave his own campaign a half a million in 2009. I don't talk about these types of things generally though because I'm not into that type of thing.

Here at What's Up NY-23 we are interested in the issues and real news, not insinuations. With that said, I object to the mayor's claim that this is a Hoffman blog. The mayor's question is comparable to someone questioning whether he took money from Doheny to write favorable things about that candidate on his blog and to also say favorable things about Doheny's vehicle on "the Hotline" today. Unfortunately, these kinds of assertions rival the Watertown Daily Times in terms of credibility.

Now come on, lets try to be fair, balanced and reasonable. That's what's up in NY-23 today.

Doug Hoffman Smokes NY-23 & Leaves Competition in the Dust

Doug Hoffman just laid down the gauntlet and set the stage for his entrance into the NY-23 race with the release of a new poll showing him in a very comfortable lead among Republicans of all shapes and sizes from all across NY-23. It looks like there are only 4 candidates in the mix for NY-23 at this point. Within that group the numbers look incredibly favorable to Doug Hoffman in the primary and the general elections. While I haven’t taken sides in the primary or the general yet, I think these might be convincing reasons to reconsider a Hoffman candidacy if you are not already a supporter.

	4-way ballot	Hoffman v. Barclay	Hoffman v. Doheny
Hoffman	56%	56%	69%
Barclay	22%	24%	na
Doheny	1%	na	6%
Maroun	4%	na	na
Undecided	18%	19%	24%

Nearly 75% of the Republican primary voters believe Doug Hoffman should run again for Congress. There is no spinning that impressive figure, or his impressive showing as a Conservative on Line D last year. I don't remember a third-party candidate ever doing as well as Hoffman did last year in the last several decades, anywhere in the country.

And based on my knowledge of the poll numbers released today and taking into account Hoffman’s favorable/unfavorable ratings, his ID is worth upwards of $900,000 in 2010. In fact, Hoffman’s polling was so strong that 71% of Republican primary voters agree that if he runs with the Republican and Conservative lines he can beat Democrat Bill Owens – only 13% of respondents didn’t think Hoffman could win. It would be interesting to see how many Independents and Democrats think Hoffman could beat Owens if he had an R and a C at the end of his name next fall.

The fact that 58% of Republican primary voters prefer a conservative candidate over a moderate candidate is also very good news for Hoffman. The only thing better is that 62% consider themselves conservative and 64% say they are pro-life. These numbers bode well for Hoffman who is aligned with a clear majority of Republican primary voters who consider themselves conservative. As evidence of this, today’s poll shows that in the 4-way ballot Hoffman did 56 times better than Doheny and 2 ½ times better than Barclay.

These figures also put two of Hoffman’s potential primary opponents, Will Barclay and Matt Doheny who are both on record as pro-choice candidates, at a significant disadvantage on social issues. Even if one of these candidates were to drop out of the race they would still be in the minority among NY-23 Republican primary voters.

Barclay is clearly at a disadvantage because of his association with the failed New York State Legislature. Doheny, who has been in a defensive posture from the very beginning, has clear negatives due to his association with investment banking in New York City and he is in 4th place in today’s poll. What’s worse for Hoffman’s competitors is that both Barclay and Doheny would presumably be competing for voters in the same ideological wing of the GOP and also from the same geographic regions in Oswego and Jefferson Counties. It is still early, but I find it very hard to believe that any amount of money can make up that difference we see today, less than 10 months out from the Republican primary.

Paul Maroun, a conservative and the only other potential Republican candidate in NY-23 besides Hoffman with military experience, has not announced his intention to run for NY-23. There have been no signs of Maroun making a bid in NY-23 over the past several weeks and the shorter the schedule gets the harder it will be for Maroun to raise enough money to be competitive. My guess is that if he does not announce his intention to run for Congress, he will either support Hoffman or likely not endorse any other candidate. Either scenario makes it harder for a challenger to beat Hoffman for the Republican nomination as Maroun conservatives rally behind Hoffman.

Hoffman laid out an impressive case today that if Republicans in NY-23 really care about beating Bill Owens in 2010 they can do it by rallying political support around him. I suspect that if the Republican Party were to do so early they would greatly diminish the likelihood of an expensive and damaging Republican primary while simultaneously improving Republican chances of beating Owens this fall. If they don’t, all bets are off and NY-23 leans a Democrat hold.

	Doug Hoffman	Will Barclay	Matt Doheny	Paul Maroun
Favorable	63%	37%	2%	8%
Unfavorable	19%	11%	1%	3%
No Opinion	15%	26%	19%	16%
Never Heard of	3%	26%	78%	73%

The desperate spin being pushed by Barclay and Doheny on Newzjunky.com this afternoon is indicative of a politics of yesteryear, and an indictment that conservativism is alive and on the rise again this year. To put it bluntly, Barclay and Doheny's reaction to today's poll just reaffirmed that Hoffman is the only viable conservative in the race and the man to beat.

Neither potential challenger made even a vague reference to their desire to reach out to the conservative base of the party which will determine who the nominee will be, instead we read that "Hoffman got what he paid for" and saw another tired appeal to represent our "diverse" interests.