Doug Hoffman just laid down the gauntlet and set the stage for his entrance into the NY-23 race with the release of a new poll showing him in a very comfortable lead among Republicans of all shapes and sizes from all across NY-23. It looks like there are only 4 candidates in the mix for NY-23 at this point. Within that group the numbers look incredibly favorable to Doug Hoffman in the primary and the general elections. While I haven’t taken sides in the primary or the general yet, I think these might be convincing reasons to reconsider a Hoffman candidacy if you are not already a supporter.
| 4-way ballot | Hoffman v. Barclay | Hoffman v. Doheny |
Hoffman | 56% | 56% | 69% |
Barclay | 22% | 24% | na |
Doheny | 1% | na | 6% |
Maroun | 4% | na | na |
Undecided | 18% | 19% | 24% |
Nearly 75% of the Republican primary voters believe Doug Hoffman should run again for Congress. There is no spinning that impressive figure, or his impressive showing as a Conservative on Line D last year. I don't remember a third-party candidate ever doing as well as Hoffman did last year in the last several decades, anywhere in the country.
And based on my knowledge of the poll numbers released today and taking into account Hoffman’s favorable/unfavorable ratings, his ID is worth upwards of $900,000 in 2010. In fact, Hoffman’s polling was so strong that 71% of Republican primary voters agree that if he runs with the Republican and Conservative lines he can beat Democrat Bill Owens – only 13% of respondents didn’t think Hoffman could win. It would be interesting to see how many Independents and Democrats think Hoffman could beat Owens if he had an R and a C at the end of his name next fall.
The fact that 58% of Republican primary voters prefer a conservative candidate over a moderate candidate is also very good news for Hoffman. The only thing better is that 62% consider themselves conservative and 64% say they are pro-life. These numbers bode well for Hoffman who is aligned with a clear majority of Republican primary voters who consider themselves conservative. As evidence of this, today’s poll shows that in the 4-way ballot Hoffman did 56 times better than Doheny and 2 ½ times better than Barclay.
These figures also put two of Hoffman’s potential primary opponents, Will Barclay and Matt Doheny who are both on record as pro-choice candidates, at a significant disadvantage on social issues. Even if one of these candidates were to drop out of the race they would still be in the minority among NY-23 Republican primary voters.
Barclay is clearly at a disadvantage because of his association with the failed New York State Legislature. Doheny, who has been in a defensive posture from the very beginning, has clear negatives due to his association with investment banking in New York City and he is in 4th place in today’s poll. What’s worse for Hoffman’s competitors is that both Barclay and Doheny would presumably be competing for voters in the same ideological wing of the GOP and also from the same geographic regions in Oswego and Jefferson Counties. It is still early, but I find it very hard to believe that any amount of money can make up that difference we see today, less than 10 months out from the Republican primary.
Paul Maroun, a conservative and the only other potential Republican candidate in NY-23 besides Hoffman with military experience, has not announced his intention to run for NY-23. There have been no signs of Maroun making a bid in NY-23 over the past several weeks and the shorter the schedule gets the harder it will be for Maroun to raise enough money to be competitive. My guess is that if he does not announce his intention to run for Congress, he will either support Hoffman or likely not endorse any other candidate. Either scenario makes it harder for a challenger to beat Hoffman for the Republican nomination as Maroun conservatives rally behind Hoffman.
Hoffman laid out an impressive case today that if Republicans in NY-23 really care about beating Bill Owens in 2010 they can do it by rallying political support around him. I suspect that if the Republican Party were to do so early they would greatly diminish the likelihood of an expensive and damaging Republican primary while simultaneously improving Republican chances of beating Owens this fall. If they don’t, all bets are off and NY-23 leans a Democrat hold.
Doug Hoffman | Will Barclay | Matt Doheny | Paul Maroun | |
Favorable | 63% | 37% | 2% | 8% |
Unfavorable | 19% | 11% | 1% | 3% |
No Opinion | 15% | 26% | 19% | 16% |
Never Heard of | 3% | 26% | 78% | 73% |
The desperate spin being pushed by Barclay and Doheny on Newzjunky.com this afternoon is indicative of a politics of yesteryear, and an indictment that conservativism is alive and on the rise again this year. To put it bluntly, Barclay and Doheny's reaction to today's poll just reaffirmed that Hoffman is the only viable conservative in the race and the man to beat.
Neither potential challenger made even a vague reference to their desire to reach out to the conservative base of the party which will determine who the nominee will be, instead we read that "Hoffman got what he paid for" and saw another tired appeal to represent our "diverse" interests.
The fact that 19% of people don't have an opinion in Doheny means the guy doesn't inspire much confidence in the people he does know.
ReplyDeleteThe fact that Barclay's unfavorable number is already at 11% shows he is unelectable.
Maroun won't run. This race is falling quickly into Hoffman's hands. Like him or not, Republicans should rally around him so we can beat Owens!
Buggs - that poll is what you call a daisy-cutter for the other Republican candidates. Things looked really flowery... but now, not so much.
ReplyDeleteMaroun is beating Doheny by 6 point. Now that is funny!
ReplyDeleteBarclay is the only one in a position to beat Hoffman. He would need to raise an incredible amount of money and get Doheny out of the race to have a chance though, especially in a Republican primary where the base turns out in greater frequency.
ReplyDeleteBarclay is too liberal... sponsored the Oswego county sales tax increase and is pro-choice.
ReplyDeleteHoffman is the real conservative.
This poll is greatly skewed considering the special election just wraped up only two months before this poll was taken. Mr. Hoffman at this point is still the candidate with the greatest name recognition. I dare say even greater than the current Congressman Bill Owens, who thus far has proven to be a Pelosi stooge and not a representative of Upstate New York. Mr. Hoffman did not perform well at the candidate interviews last summer and even with his "conservative" credentials, I don;t believe he possesses the abilities to handle the difficult challenges faced by New York and the United States today. The Conservative wing of the National Republican Party used him as a poster boy last fall and came close to winning, but it was all hype. Take a minute and look at the old interviews and you will see a fumbling and bumbling Doug Hoffman who said that the Pork barrel must stop, which would greatly affect Fort Drum's livelihood and the retail economy. Spending must be controlled, but how to do it is another issue. As far as the other candidates are concerned, I favor Mr. Doheny. He has a lot of work to do to gain name recognition, but he is intelligent, articulate, personable, and aggressive. He wants to do what is in the best interest of New York and the nation. I have no tolerance for abortion, but the war over abortion is at a stalmate at the moment so I am willing to look beyond Mr. Doheny's view in favor of a women's right to choose, with the exception of partial birth abortion I might ad, in favor of someone who I believe has the talents and ability to challenge the status quo in Washington and in New York for that matter. The days of incumbent dynasties are at and end. It is time to purge our democracy from poor leaders and those who chase after blind ambitions or allow themselves to be proped up by political parties and unions just to maintain their power over the lives of our fellow citizens. The next great revolution in our democracy must start now!
ReplyDeleteRunning a poll before anyone has officially announced they are running is a joke. OF COURSE the person :in the lead" is the person on the ballot last year. Will Barclay has never campaigned to the voters across all of NY-23 while Matt Doheny has nevcer campaigned at all. This poll is a joke. Hoffman is a fool and as soon as people realize that we can move on with the educated/informed candidates like Barclay and Doheny leave the whole Hoffman embarrasment of 2009 behind us.
ReplyDeleteLook at the demos of this poll. 86% of those polled were 41 and over, with only 12% from age 18 and 40. Nearly 40% were over 65. I know young people are leaving in droves, but this is not very representative of the district.
ReplyDeleteBy Nov. anyone of these guys will be able to beat owens if labamba & pelosi keep it up. America has had enough of this socialist crap and we hav'nt even got the bill for it yet.Don't believe it? Mass is turning red! fathead teds seat no less. If they don't change some attitudes gonna be a whole lotta house cleaning going on. Myself would love to see chucky boy knocked off his perch!
ReplyDeleteJohn,
ReplyDeleteYou must be kidding about your support for Doheny. He basically came out and said he was going to try and buy the seat from us. How else are we supposed to interpret his statement: "I will have the resources to be competitive" What a disgrace that he thinks he can buy the seat off. How much is he paying you to post comments on this blog today? And how much for your vote tomorrow?
Saying that Barclay's negatives show that he's unelectable is completely a joke. Hoffman's are higher than Barclay's and Hoffman has never been hit on any issue, EVER.
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion this poll shows that Hoffman is going to run no matter what and if he needs to run on the Conservative line only he will. That leads to say that I'm not sure anyone can beat Bill Owens because Hoffman will split the political right down the middle.
I like Barclay due to his knowledge and abiltity to present himself, I think he'd be an effective Member of Congress. Doheny can't buy the seat and he turns people off from what I can tell. Hoffman is just simply an empty suit being led around by political hacks.
11:10,
ReplyDeleteBut Hoffman's favorables are much higher than Barclay's.
119 - Hoffman just spent a million dollars on a race across all eleven counties saving the GOP from itself. Of course his favorables are going to be higher than anyone else - he killed a RINO.
ReplyDeletePlus, Barclay is a known commodity in a much different way than Hoffman. Hoffman has NEVER had a bomb thrown at him and has NEVER had to actually give a public stump speech. The debate he did in Syracuse was the only example and he was horrific, but there wasn't any real attacks and it wasn't played district wide. In this year long campaign, he's going to have to stump for it and answer some tough questions and pose some tough questions. His favorables will dip...how much is the question.
Doheny's comment about having the resources to compete likely means that he can raise the money to compete - not that he will contribute it himself. At the end of the day that makes a big difference - it sure did for Hoffman. If he had not been able to raise fund in 2009 we would not even be talking about him today. Doheny is a very strong contender, he just has not campaigned to the public yet so of course he would come in last.
ReplyDeleteThis poll is very silly and the fact that anyone is paying any attention to it is even sillier.
Doheny spent 200K last summer. What did that get him? He doesn't know how to spend it. He just knows what he wants to try and buy.
ReplyDeleteI should start a petition, "NNY Not for Sale!!!"
The "buying a seat" comment is a real lack of class. How did Hoffman get where he did. How much to Hillary Clinton loan her campaign. Did Biden or Barack's contributions to NY slip under the radar. Who do you think funds Addie Russell or Aubertine. It's the DNC buying the vote. Pointing at Doheny for such a thing is a comment by someone with blinders on and a ax to grind.
ReplyDeleteSo Doheny wants to be like Hoffman, Clinton, Biden, Obama, and the DNC now??? That's not what I want in a Republican.
ReplyDeleteGood lord this is a stupid argument. It takes money to run a successful campaign. If you can't raise it you can't win. That is just a fact. Doheny's ability to raise money before even being nominated in an off-year special election is amazing and he should commended for it. It has nothing to do with "buying a seat". Some people on these blogs are so clueless it hurts to read them. I would like to think NNYers are smarter than that.
ReplyDeleteI would believe that the majority of NNYers are smarter than the average blogger. Especially those who practice character assasination and claim that my endorsement of Mr. Doheny is bougt and paid for. My comments, intellect and name are NOT FOR SALE! I take great pride and honor for what I stand for and I don't support just anyone that shows up on the ballot. I wouldn't support someone if I didn't think they had character, leadership, and a true heart for service to the people of NNY. To claim that Mr. Doheny is "buying" the seat is ignorant. There is a double standard that exists, we want our representatives to think independently and voice their opinions so we get offended when we see how much money corporations, special interests groups, and elitists poor into a candidates coffers, but when someone who has worked hard to accumulate some sort of wealth in a relatively short span of time decided to run for office using HIS OWN MONEY, he is branded and accused of buying a seat as if it were another trophy to put on a shelf or a title to be adorned. My comments and my vote is not and shall never be for sale to anyone. I don't take kindly to such base and vile accusations from cowards who won't even post their name.
ReplyDeleteI second that Mr Peck. Thank you for being the voice of reason. This original posting was uncharacteristically slanted and I, for one, greatly appreciate your commentary.
ReplyDeleteWhat is slanted about the fact that Doheny poured $200K of his money into a losing campaign this past summer to convince 11 people he was "the guy" who could fix everything. Doheny did compete for the nomination, correct? The fact that he just moved here less than 7 months ago is also troubling. How can Republicans put up a carpet-bagging lawyer from Wall Street who self-finances and expect to win? Where do you think Independent voters will go? The only thing worse than a lawyer is a lawyer who works on Wall Street. The only thing worst than a lawyer on Wall Street is a lawyer on Wall Street who comes back to the North Country on a whim to try to shove it down our throats and tell us what to do. It's sickening, really.
ReplyDeleteYou sound a bit bitter 11:04. Anyone who knows anything thinks that the Dede nomination was a mistake. Most agree that is Doheny or Maroun had been nominated instead we would have a republican representing the 23rd district today. The fact that Matt spect $200K to get his name out there is fine with me. The way I see it, no one knew who the guy was a year ago and now he is probably the biggest threat to Owens (and to Hoffman, but that battle is a joke). I would say that was an effective campaign, despite not getting the nomination.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, since you seem so big on labeling people, you might want to brush up your facts. The "whim" you are referring to is just wrong. Matt has owned a home in Alex Bay for a long time and he purchased his Watertown home in 2006. Why would anyone buy a home in Watertown unless that was going to be their home...last time I checked, Watertown was not the "new Hamptons". So the carpet bagging label is a stretch. Second, Matt hasn't practiced law for more than 10 years. So the lawyer label is a stretch. Lastly, he raised about $300K before anyone was even nominated in 2009, so "self-financed" is a bit of a stretch.
For some reason you have turned being a self-made well-educated man who wants to give back to his home town and serve the people into a negative thing. That, in fact, is what is sickening.
2:42 - spend more time thinking about what to say in your press releases than on this stupid blog Doheny Campaign. No one in the world has that many "facts" about Doheny except his campaign staff (maybe his parents.)
ReplyDeleteGet away from these childish arguments and try and win the nomination. Heck, try and get 5% percent name recognition - that would be a good start.
Nice try but I am not from the Doheny campaign, I just spent a lot of time learning about all of the candidates seeking the nomination last summer, including Hoffman and Maroun (my knowledge of Barclay is from the State Senate campaign so I admit I need more info on what he has done since 2008). I like to make educated decisions about the candidates. All of the information I told you about Doheny is readily available for all to see. Property records are public records and and in fact all of this info was in the press - these were concerns of mine as well, which is why I researched it. I am surprised you chose to criticize him for being a lawyer though, most people criticize him for working on Wall Street, at least that is more accurate. Clearly you prefer to work off of rumor and heresay. And better yet, you criticize those of us who do the work to learn about the candidates. Obviously everyone is entitled to think whatever they want about Barclay, Doheny and Hoffman but I am just regularly astounded by the misinformation that gets spewed on these blogs. I was just trying to set the record straight. Go ahead and attack me for it. I couldn't care less, but I can tell you with certainty I am not part of the Doheny campaign or any other for that matter. Just an educated voter. Give it a try, it is enlightening.
ReplyDelete