Kudlow v. Schumer 2010?

There is lots of action in New York State politics since the Brown victory in Massachusetts on Tuesday.

The biggest, I think, is what appears to be a draft movement by some tea-party folks and fiscal conservatives to line up support for CNBC economic commentator, Larry Kudlow, to challenge Senator Chuck Schumer. Schumer has always been incredibly popular throughout New York and is a long-time and well-established national Democrat. He won re-election in 2004 with just over 64% of the vote. Rumors are abound that Schumer could even be next in line for the Senate Majority Leader perch.

Kudlow has a personal history, but he has lots of media and money contacts. He also holds some pretty solid credentials having worked in the Reagan White House. I think a Schumer-Kudlow matchup would draw intense national attention and it would certainly be an incredible race to witness in 2010. But the question is -- would Kudlow really give up his job and make a run at it? He was quoted in Newsmax today saying, "I am honored by the talk and the consideration." You can see the Draft Kudlow site by going to www.DraftKudlow.com. He also has been writing on his own blog for a long time. You can read it here.

Bruce Blakeman is getting traction in his bid for the Republican nomination. It looks like Pataki is still AWOL on making a run. But even if Blakeman coasts to victory in the primary is it enough? Blakeman might have an opportunity to further capitalize on Senator-elect Scott Brown's victory on Tuesday, but right now all of the focus remains on the Gillibrand-Ford primary. Yesterday, the New York Times quoted Blakeman in what appears to be a populist rhetoric appealing to voters who are angry and frustrated. He asked, "You are angry? I will fight for you. You are worried? I will work to protect you. You are frustrated, and your voice will be heard..."

Maybe anything is possible after Brown's upset victory in Massachusetts. However, we saw over the last year how politics can be incredibly volatile. If the White House and Congressional Democrats can rebound and put forth a credible jobs proposal they might not be as vulnerable as conventional wisdom portrays. For now the momentum clearly seems to be with the GOP, but that momentum can evaporate quickly for any number of reasons. There is lots of time and lots of issues ahead that will play a factor. The 2010 elections are shaping up quickly to be a referendum on the Obama White House. The ball is in the President's court to a large extend and he can be a pretty good shooter when he is focused.

Here is a breakdown of how President Obama did in 2008 and how President Bush did in 2004. The numbers in both states are pretty similar.

	Massachusetts	New York
Obama 2008	61.36%	62.22%
McCain 2008	35.73%	35.65%
Kerry 2004	61.94%	56.13%
Bush 2004	36.78%	37.69%
Brown 2010	51.94%	NA
Coakley 2010	47.07%	NA