Franklin GOP Supports Candidate Who Dresses Like a Terrorist?

File this one under ugly political optics.

Franklin County Republican Committee Chairman James Ellis is supporting Democrat Executive Steve Levy for New York State Governor. Levy was a Democrat until just a few weeks ago when he decided he wanted to run for Governor. One could argue that Levy is worse than Dede Scozzafava in more ways than one. After all, Scozzafava may have dressed up in weird pink outfits, but at least she didn't dress up as a terrorist!

It is repulsive to think that Chairman James Ellis would abandon the voters of Franklin county who believe in a free and strong America so he can cozy up with liberal Democrats. Who supports candidates that dress up as terrorists anyways? Now rumors are circulating that Ellis is planning on supporting Mr. Wall Street Banker-Lawyer Matt Doheny for NY-23 over Conservative - Republican Doug Hoffman.

Several other Republican county chairs in NY-23 are also supporting Levy and Doheny over Republican Rick Lazio. The questions one has to ask is: are Ellis and some of the other county chairs trying to fracture the Republican Party on purpose? Why can't the county committees just do their job and then endorse the winner of the Republican Party once the fight is over? Does Doheny also support Steve Levy for Governor over Rick Lazio?

The county committees were never originally set up to tear the party apart before the primary happened. The county committees exist to be a support network to recruit candidates, help organize events, educate the public on Republican ideals, push Republican policies, and help fund candidates once they earn the right to be the Republican nominee for political office.

Now these committees function to give credibility and cover to Democrats who dress up like Osama Bin Ladin and carpetbaggers from New York City who traded stocks and dividends on Wall Street. In a sense, the county committees are losing credibility because of their ulterior motives, failure to communicate with the grassroots, uncanny inability to win local races, a capacity to fundamentally tear the GOP apart, and weak leadership.

Update, 4/14/10: Several individuals have e-mailed and said that you can go back 20+ years into anyone's history and find something that disqualifies them for public office. However, it should be pointed out that when Levy dressed up as an unrepentant terrorist on October 31, 1983, it was only 8 days after 241 American Servicemen had died serving our country in Beirut, Lebanon as Islamic terrorists bombed the Marine barracks on October 23, 1983. What sort of a person would show that kind of rash humor just days after the biggest death toll of American service members the US experienced since Vietnam. Levy is not just a bad comedian. He is bad for New York and the Republican Party.

NY-23 GOP Primary Race Starts Today

Paul Maroun has made it public that he is out of the race for NY-23. That leaves two candidates for the GOP primary in NY-23. Doug Hoffman and Matt Doheny, who today is "officially announcing" his entrance into the race. His campaign website, www.dohenyforcongress.com, is still under construction, but I am sure it will be up in no time.

Mayor Graham says he is hoping for a William Jennings Bryan pitchfork speech where Doheny will promise not to "crucify us upon a cross of gold," a reference to the July 9, 1896 speech at the Democratic National Convention where Bryan essentially promised "free Obama bucks" (in those days silver coins) to artificially increase inflation so that freeloaders could pay back their mortgages on rocky farm land. Believe it or not, the Democrats thought it was trendy to be populist and down with Big Government back in the late 19th Century, too.

Forgetting for a moment that the silver-to-gold ratio policy was a Big Government precursor to today's bailouts and Pelosi stimulus dollars, I still don't believe that Doheny has the rhetorical repertoire or the policy knowledge to make a populist case for the Republican nomination. The mayor is right though in his assessment that Doheny needs to catch lightening in a bottle and gin up the grassroots. But if I had to guess the jabs of red meat the Mayor will hear will be directed mainly at Owens for his vote on health care and card check.

But herein lies the problem: Doheny is not capable of making the populist case for supply-side economics or defeating the old establishment guard, which is what he would need to do if he wants to win. That's Hoffman's conservative turf and its an unfamiliar arena for a Wall-Street Banker-Lawyer like Doheny to seriously contend in. If Doheny attacks Hoffman it will likely be on the issue of Hoffman not promising to commit to the winner of the GOP primary in September. But there is an easy and reasonable response to that line of attack which I am surprised nobody has been talking about. The response is simple -- the winner needs to win the respect of the voters, not the other candidates.

There was an interesting quote I read in a recent article on the Republican primary for the Iowa Governor race that compares similarly to Hoffman's strategic decision to not commit to supporting the Republican nominee in NY-23 race. For background, Bob Vander Platts, a Hoffman conservative, is running in the GOP primary for Governor against former Governor Terry Branstad, an establishment Republican. Vander Platts, like Doug Hoffman, has been noncommittal about supporting whoever wins the GOP nod in Iowa. Vander Platts says, "Whoever wins the nomination needs to authentically earn the support of his peers... blind allegiances [to party] really play out in taking another candidate's base of support for granted, and I don't think any one of us can afford that."

That statement is very true and is something the Republican party in NY-23 should seriously reflect upon in the coming weeks ahead. Blind allegiances, smoke and mirror politics, and back room deals are no longer accepted practice in politics today. Voters want humility, transparency, a candidate who sides with the people instead of with the media, a fresh candidate like Hoffman.

Candidates like Doheny and establishment Republican guru's have no business making threats, or taking entire blocks supporter for granted, whether they be ideological groups of people, geographic regions or counties, or otherwise. And if you thought 2009 was the year of the grassroots insurgency in NY-23 just wait until the fall. 2010 is the year of the Tea Party and the grassroots Republican-Conservative majority. May the best candidate of the people win, and may the winning campaign not bury the voters under fragile stones encrypted with broken promises.

NY-23 GOP Chairs Realize It's Hoffman or Owens

Today the Watertown Daily Times has another piece up about Doug Hoffman having the Conservative line for the 2010 NY-23 congressional race. It's a great story for Doug, but I can't help but think the Watertown Daily Times is beating a dead horse. We have read this same story about 100 times over the past few months and it hasn't changed a thing -- Hoffman is running for Congress whether the local Republican leaders sitting in the Ivory Tower want him to or not. This fact was so obvious to Assemblyman Will Barclay that he dropped out of the race for NY-23 because he recognized he couldn't win so long as Doug Hoffman was at the table.

Nancy Martin, the St. Lawrence County GOP Chair, may be the smartest of the Republican bunch who understands that the Republican Party now has an important choice to make. Today she stated clearly that, "Our primary objective is to beat Bill Owens. We can't do that with a split between the Republican line and the Conservative line." And as long as people like Martin continue to concede defeat to Owens unless the Republican and Conservative lines are merged, that means the Republican Party only has two options.

The choice is clear: Republican leaders can run with Doug Hoffman and unite the Republican and Conservative parties to beat Democrat Bill Owens, or they can pick Matt Doheny, a moderate carpetbagger, and know they are handing a victory to Owens. It took poor Don Coon, the Jefferson County GOP Chair, until today to say what Republicans everywhere in NY-23 are thinking. He said simply, "Put Doug Hoffman on the line -- or lose... the fix is in." In fairness Donald Coon doesn't like his choice, but at least he is being honest in his assessment.

The Republican chairs know Hoffman is running and they can't legally stop him from doing so. That's a beautiful thing for American democracy. Does the Republican Party really have any business in telling someone whether they can or can't run as a Conservative anyways? Do the NY-23 Republican leaders want to be remembered as the clan who gave Owens his path to victory in 2010 after having voted for ObamaCare twice?

The holdouts like James Ellis, the Franklin County GOP chair, should just give up their crusade to tear down Hoffman by saying things like, "If you choose otherwise (i.e. Matt Doheny), Doug Hoffman is going to make sure the GOP candidate loses." That's some great spin by Ellis, but does he think voters are stupid? People know that what Ellis is really saying is, "If we pick someone other than Hoffman we are most likely going to lose and it will be all our fault, but I don't want to take the blame so I am setting up Hoffman to be the fall guy."

What Ellis needs to understand is that a lot of people want Hoffman to run as a Conservative if he doesn't run on both party lines. There are a lot of people who would be infuriated with Hoffman if he abandoned the very people who have donated, volunteered, and supported him over the last several months. It's not so hard to understand Hoffman's position when you think it through. It just makes you wonder if Ellis wants Owens to win because he has an ulterior motive.

What Martin and Coon are willing to admit, but what Ellis still refuses to accept, is that Doug Hoffman out-played them in this technical game we call politics. And because Hoffman has the people on his side, he has no reason to abandon them or the Conservative Party. Hoffman is looking to win by addition. Hoffman haters want to force him into losing (and by extension themselves) by subtraction. No one can credibly blame Hoffman for his decision because it is, in fact, the only winning strategy.

Those who don't understand it, or refuse to accept it, just need to get over themselves because the race will be won by Hoffman or Owens. And if the race for NY-23 turns into a 3-way race and you are unhappy with the result look no further than James Ellis and the other holdouts in his tiny corner. The choice is clear and Republicans get to make it.

While Leaving NY-23 Race Will Barclay Beats Up on Political Cynicism

Assemblyman Will Barclay got out of the race for NY-23 tonight. The main theme that Barclay leaves us with is that he did not want to skirt his "duty" to the New York State Assembly which is currently in disarray. In an e-mail message sent out to supporters tonight Barclay took a hard shot at what he describes as the cynicism of politics.

Barclay eloquently wrote, "I fully expect and resign myself to accepting that my citing duty as the reason for my decision will be dismissed by some, perhaps by many, with cynical comments. So be it... It was, I freely admit, very tempting to excuse myself from the ever worsening woes of Albany." That kind of open and honest dialogue is what voters are longing for in today's politics. It was a theme the former candidate could have utilized earlier on in his bid to gain traction for the Republican nomination.

For sure Barclay's decision to leave the race for NY-23 is a bit of an indication of how hard it is to compete against a populist, conservative Republican juggernaut in Doug Hoffman and a self-financing Banker-Lawyer from Manhattan in Matt Doheny. Regardless, Barclay may still have a very bright future in politics and What's Up NY-23 wants to wish Mr. Barclay the best in his effort to represent the people of the 124th Assembly district in Albany.

Did Vaugh Plagiarize Doheny or did Doheny Plagiarize Vaugh?

File this post under the "you can't make this stuff up" bookmark because it is bizarre. Read the two statements below from Nick Vaugh, running for the 118th Assembly district, and Matt Doheny, running for the 23rd congressional seat held by Bill Owens, and then tell me someone isn't plagiarizing.

Nick Vaugh's Fundraising Appeal to Republicans Posted on NewzJunky.com on March 4, 2010:

"I owe my values and success to my family. My mother and father along with my grandfather taught me firsthand the dignity of hard work, the sanctity of family, and the value of service to the community. It is with these values that I seek your assistance in representing the citizens of the 118th Assembly District and the rest of New York. It is with these values and experience I will aggressively work to create an economic environment in which businesses and families can thrive."

Matt Doheny's Letter to Local Republican Committee Members Dated January 21, 2010:

"The value of hard work in the North Country, the sanctity of family and the importance of service to the community was passed down to Matt at a young age directly from his parents. It is these values and the values that he learned from his work in the private sector that Matt will use to represent the citizens of the 23rd Congressional District."

These two paragraphs sound like outright plagiarism to us. And it appears that either Vaugh and Doheny are brothers, or one of them copied the other's campaign materials. Notice the terms that are intimately woven into each candidate's perspective biographies, words like: values, hard work, sanctity of family and service to the community. This could create a major problem for each candidate and they need to be honest with the voters about their backgrounds instead of spouting off vague, cookie-cutter generalizations and near verbatim wording. The website Famous Plagiarists.com sums the seriousness of this political foul on their site:

"A proven accusation of plagiarism can have serious repercussions for a candidate's political ambitions. Just ask Joe Biden. His borrowing of a British politician's campaign speech is perhaps the most famous instance of political plagiarism... This P-word sums up a number of qualities with which no successful politician would want to be assocaited: in-authentic, shortsighted, manipulable (by speechwriters), dishonest, criminal, deceitful, and so on... And if the plagiarism charges stick, the accused is forever tainted, corrupted, and sullied with the justly deserved stigma surrounding such reprehensible behavior. Even if the speechwriter is the real culprit! ["Your speechwriter did it?--yeah, right."]"

And there is a precedent for plagiarism among North Country politicians that never goes over well. Remember when Darrel Aubertine plagiarized a bill that his colleague, State Senator Elizabeth Little, wrote last year? A few weeks after Little had submitted a bill in early 2009 to regulate block-voting rights among co-ops in the New York milk market, Aubertine introduced near similar language amending the state agriculture and markets law. In a classic response to Aubertine, Senator Little took to the floor of the State Senate and said Aubertine's bill was essentially something she could support because she had already introduced it (the video can be found at the end of this post in case you missed the exchange). You may also remember this second instance of plagiarism by Aubertine reported by the Gouverneur Times.

The reason why today's instance of political plagiarism is particularly offensive is because each candidate involved in this scandal used language to describe the values and character they inherited from each of their respective families. It is fine to talk about your core values on the campaign trail and in your written correspondence, but in doing so you should never resort to copying another politician's rhetoric. Beyond sounding unoriginal, it raises questions about one's ethics and personal competence. And to borrow unoriginal language about the values handed down to you by your parents is just lame and embarrassing.

Voters expect candidates to be open and honest about their backgrounds. And this violation raises larger questions for each candidate because it is a safe bet that neither Doheny nor Vaugh will want to be associated with Democratic State Senator Darrel Aubertine for plagiarizing. Will Vaugh and Doheny clear the air with a public statement, an explanation or an apology?

Timing the Race for NY-23

Mayor Graham has an interesting take on the two-step campaign that will be waged for the NY-23 race this year. First, the Republican candidates will have a primary that happens on Tuesday, September 14th. Then the GOP winner will go up against incumbent Congressman Bill Owens on Tuesday, November 2nd.

The timing here is important because the district is so large and rural. Mayor Graham had it right that this race will take a lot of organization and old-fashioned shoe leather. While we are still seven months out from the primary, that is not a lot of time to build an aggressive grassroots team across a huge rural district like NY-23. And seven months is not a lot of time if you want to be taken seriously as a candidate who can beat an incumbent like Bill Owens.

It is also getting really late for any other candidates to get into the ring at this late juncture. At least three candidates: Barclay, Doheny and Hoffman, are building staff and attending some local events. It would be a fair prediction to suggest that no other candidate will be taken seriously as the campaigns shift into second gear. For some candidates, the longer they wait to officially get into the political ring, the harder it becomes to be competitive in building the name ID and trust that will be needed to bring down Bill Owens in November.

Doug Hoffman has a head start because of the momentum he built in the special election last year. He likely has an impressive file of donors, volunteers, and supporters who helped him become competitive in the last two weeks of the race last year. Hoffman is the only candidate with a campaign website and he is dominating the new political battlefront, online campaigning. Hoffman's infrastructure will go a long way because the file his campaign developed last year is fairly updated, having been created just months ago, and ready to be tapped into.

Will Barclay also an advantage as we move into the second half of February. He has good name recognition in the western end of the district where he is an incumbent Assemblyman. He also has some name ID in the central part of NY-23 from his failed State Senate run against Darrel Aubertine. Barclay's challenge is to become more well known in the eastern and central part of the state where he hasn't been as active in politics. That task can be accomplished in seven months, but he will need to start moving quickly.

It would be to Matt Doheny's strategic advantage if he officially entered the race sooner rather than later. Based on the context of Mayor Graham's blog post today, I would expect Doheny to make that move rather soon because of his political necessity -- he has to do something to shake this race up!

Doheny, the New York investor, has been away from the district for almost ten years, and while he has maintained two homes here (one in Watertown and one on an Island on the river) it will presumably be much harder for him to build the kind of infrastructure that already exists for the two other leading GOP contenders. Voters who have met Doheny that we have talked to have called him a candidate that is "a bit elitist and very mysterious." Getting into the thick of the campaign could help Doheny build new trust, stronger alliances and improve his low name ID. These negatives were evident in the latest poll that came out last month showing Doheny in 4th place with only 2% favorable name ID. NY-23 is a big district and it takes a lot of time to meet the voters, build their trust and introduce yourself. With that said, Doheny does have a team in place and is raising early money, albeit from Wall Street bankers and traditional Democratic donors.

These races, especially multi-candidate primaries, are hard to predict. However, with a protracted calendar the advantage would seem to lay with Hoffman and then Barclay, which may give us some insight into why both candidates have yet to make an official declaration of their intent to run yet. With less time to compete for voters, both Hoffman and Barclay (in that order) will have a competitive advantage in rallying their pre-existing networks of political support, compared to other candidates who are still on the sidelines and just now beginning to make their first-time introductions.

Certainly money means a lot, but all candidates have the same amount of time, which is finite in politics. How well each candidate choses to strategize the schedule will play a big part in who gets to face Bill Owens for the federal seat, which will always be remembered as Congressman John McHugh's old job.

Matt Doheny's Special Ties to Wall Street Money is a Double-Edged Sword

The Politico has an interesting top page story about New York Insurgents Standing up for Wall Street. It's an interesting read and needless to say, there are clear political advantages and disadvantages to being on the side of Wall Street in 2010. If you are on the side of big bankers and powerful Wall Street attorney's you can pretty much count on some $2,400 checks to your campaign committee. Ben Smith of the Politico goes to say that, "The warm words for Wall Street have one clear political benefit: Money." Conversely, if you are against the big banks you can use that message to fight for the middle class and win populist support.

And in the race for NY-23 there has certainly been some discussion about campaign contributions coming in from Wall Street to candidate Matthew Doheny, who announced his 600K war chest on NewzJunky.com this week. In fairness, I can't say how much of that 600K is from Wall Street because it has been written that Doheny loaned his campaign at least 650K so far. But it is true that Doheny has only listed only three reportable donors on his FEC report with an address within the boundaries of NY-23 -- all of them were from Jefferson County.

What I do know is that in the summer of 2009 Dohey raised about $190,000 from individuals for the Republican primary. However, he returned all the donations he sought in July of 2009 after Dede Scozzafava won the nod from the GOP county chairs. Now having spent $175,000, Doheny has garnered roughly 2% name recognition across the district and is going through an incredible financial burn-rate that is usually reserved for the final weeks of a campaign.

A Doheny insider who is close to the action and asked not to be named for this report wrote to me that the campaign's goal is to intimidate Assemblyman Will Barclay out of the race with big name consultants, endorsements, and heavy financial backing out of New York City. But the aide said that some within the campaign are worried that Barclay won't fold if he sees Doheny's cash on hand number dwindle before the race even starts, ruining Doheny's strategy to take Barclay out of the race by mid-to-late spring. Hence the reason for Doheny's statement last week on funding. The source stated that Doheny hopes to have his cash-on-hand number above $1 million by the end of June in time for the second FEC report of 2010. And the campaign is working under the assumption that Doheny will have to loan himself another 400-600K to get there, putting his total personal investment in the race at over $1 million. In other words, he is trying to force Barclay out by buying the race early.

The unnamed source said that Doheny's willingness to loan more money to his campaign is dependent on how much Barclay raises next quarter. The source also said that many on the campaign were excited at the prospect of bringing on Cary Brick, Congressman McHugh's former Chief of Staff, but were also nervous that his high price tag might hurt their chances of keeping the cash-on-hand high enough to scare away young Mr. Barclay. But the all-in strategy is what Doheny is banking on because he recognizes his weak support among the grassroots across NY-23, even in his own backyard. Rumor has it that a dozen plus prominent Jefferson County Republican Committee members are set to announce their endorsement for Barclay in the next few weeks.

But still Doheny's communications team is pushing their candidate's image as a young man who pulled himself up from his bootstraps to make something of himself in the big city and who returned home because of his desire to enter public service. They frequently cite that the young attorney/finance guru drives a old beat up 94 Ford Explorer named "Bessie." It's a strategy meant to distract voters from his connection to Wall Street, an image the campaign is fearful may hurt at the polls. The Doheny source mentioned a Quinnipiac University poll from 2009 that found 79% of all New York voters backed taxes against those who earn more than $1 million a year. Worried that in 2010 voter sentiment against Wall Street is even higher now as people on main street remain frustrated with the current recession and double digit unemployment numbers, Doheny's team has sought to distance their candidate from his past.

However, Doheny's Wall Street connects will likely bring him some easy campaign cash, which will help in catching up in the name ID game. A quick glance at the FEC website shows that Doheny collected over 20K from Deutsche Bank last summer. Of the 120 individuals who have given to Doheny, over a quarter were finance lawyers, half of Doheny's donors listed addresses among the richest zip codes of New York City and an overwhelming majority were involved in the financial sector and private investments. But one of the most interesting highlights is that most of the donors on Doheny's report were consistent donors for Democrat backed organizations and powerful liberal members of the Democratic Party.

For example, Raj Bhattacharyya, who gave the maximum contribution allowed by law to Doheny also gave to Senators Gillibrand, Casey, Obama, Clinton, Specter, Feingold, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and several liberal Democratic house members from New York. Another donor, Michael Curreri gave to Representative Maffei and Senate Banking Committee Chairman, Chris Dodd. Josh Easterly of Goldman Sachs who donated to the DNC and President Obama also gave to Doheny. Doheny donor Mayar Lakhani, another Deutsche Bank employee, gave to Obama, Clinton, Menendez, Gillibrand, Specter, and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recruiter, Representative Steve Israel. Doheny even took money from two employees at the Blackstone Group whose CEO, Steven Schwarzman, recently lashed out at US Government officials and threatened to tie up credit and loans unless they get their way politically.

In addition, Doheny found almost 10% of his donors from the law firm, Quinn Emmanuel Urquhard LLP. That law firm happens to represent funds and fund managers before the US Security and Exchange Commission, as well as other government bodies in the US and abroad. According to their website, "Quinn Emanuel's White Collar Criminal Defense and Internal Investigations Practice Group represents prominent domestic and foreign corporations, special committees and boards of directors, as well as individuals, in high profile criminal investigations, administrative enforcement hearings, trials and appeals... attorneys in this practice group are regularly retained to represent witnesses, subjects and targets of grand jury investigations, enforcement actions and criminal proceedings in industries ranging from securities, defense, and banking, to health care, entertainment, pharmaceuticals, and technology." Some might question after getting almost $16,000 from the law firm's attorneys that should Doheny win a seat in Congress, he might use his political influence to help QEU's clients as they come before the SEC. Other notable donors listed TARP recipients, and big financial firms like Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Bank of America as their employers. The list of big money makers from the New York, New Jersey and Connecticut goes on and on.

The real question for Doheny then becomes two-fold. First, is Doheny beholden to Wall Street interests and will he use his political influence, if elected, to benefit his donors and their clients? Second, why are so many of Doheny's close friends, associates and campaign donors so fond of the DNC, DSCC, DCCC, Obama, Feingold, Clinton, Gillibrand, Dodd, Specter, Israel, Richardson, Perriello, Menendez, Kerry, Casey, Arcuri, Maffei and others of the same ilk? Is it because Doheny has promised to be a strong voice for Wall Street over Main Street interests?

Can Doheny continue to file FEC reports without donors from NY-23 and remain relevant in a district that is suffering from the excesses of big bankers on Wall Street using TARP money to pay mega-bonuses to their corporate and financial heads? Will Doheny make a statement on his position on earmarks, the stimulus, TARP, bonuses on Wall Street and Obama's TARP tax proposal?

Why doesn't Doheny have a campaign website that lists his position on critical issues of importance to people across NY-23? Will Doheny continue to self-finance his race in an effort to scare Will Barclay back into his assembly seat? Will anyone in the mainstream media look at where Doheny's money is coming from and ask the tough questions?

The only answer we do know right now is that Doheny's Wall Street connections are a double-edged sword in his bid to become the Repubilcan nominee for NY-23.

Mayor Graham Still Can't ID Me

A few weeks ago Mayor Graham speculated that I was Scott Gray and he must have figured out by now that he was wrong. Today Mayor Graham asks if What's Up NY-23 is a "house organ for the Hoffman campaign" because of a "clear effort to cast Doheny and Barclay as pro choice (aka Dede clones)?" First let me say very clearly that this is not a pro-Hoffman blog. I just happened to provide commentary based on a publicly released poll that is based on fact and political analysis.

Second, the fact that Mayor Graham is already trying to spin or defend the assumption that both Doheny and Barclay are in fact moderates raises questions of its own. Now I'm not saying that being a moderate is good or bad. It just is what it is. If two moderates are running against one conservative, clearly they are going to split the vote and leave the conservatives with one place to go. That was the true intention of my blog post. The same would be true if there were two conservatives running against one moderate. Conservatives would split the vote and leave the moderate with the prize of winning the primary.

On that note, if you read my blog post from yesterday you will see that I never made any claim that either candidate was a Dede clone. For one, they are both better looking and neither supports card check legislation, homosexual marriage or is seeking the Working Families Party nod as far as I am aware. I wrote yesterday in the first paragraph of my post that I have not yet taken sides in either the primary or the general election.

On the issue of both Barclay and Doheny being pro-choice, however, I think that point is rather obvious. For better or worse, both Doheny and Barclay are, in fact, pro-choice Republicans. Neither potential candidate has ever claimed to be pro-life and neither have refuted numerous media reports that they are pro-choice. When 64% of Republican primary voters describe themselves as pro-life, that creates a wedge that these candidates will have to deal with in their own way.

As for Barclay his support for abortion is on record. In 2006 the National Organization of Women gave him a 100% pro-choice score for his favorable abortion votes.

Regarding Doheny, Sal Gentile with the Capitol Report, a must-read paper of the Albany government and political community, wrote as recently as December 15th that he is, "a pro-choice Manhattan lawyer who has already channeled as much as half a million dollars into his campaign account, has won the favor of more moderate Republicans because he would not have to depend on outside interest groups for money." Political IV said, Republicans at the VFW in Gouverneur on July 14th of last year were "caught off guard with his position on the hot button pro-life versus pro-choice issue." The Riehl World Blog also called Doheny "pro-choice." Doheny has never disputed this record even though he has been prone to release statements ad nauseam anytime another candidate says anything or puts out a statement. He has not corrected the record yet, so I have to assume he is pro-choice according to these reports and what he is personally saying to people in NY-23.

But the important thing I want to get across is that the claim that I am somehow trying to influence the election in Hoffman's favor is short-sighted. If I really wanted to sabotage other candidates I would write about how both Barclay and Doheny think they can win this election the old fashioned way -- they both think they can buy off the people's votes. The Barclay family, I presume, has all sorts of money to contribute to this race. And Doheny gave $10,000 to the New York Federal Republican Campaign Committee less than three months ago. He also gave his own campaign a half a million in 2009. I don't talk about these types of things generally though because I'm not into that type of thing.

Here at What's Up NY-23 we are interested in the issues and real news, not insinuations. With that said, I object to the mayor's claim that this is a Hoffman blog. The mayor's question is comparable to someone questioning whether he took money from Doheny to write favorable things about that candidate on his blog and to also say favorable things about Doheny's vehicle on "the Hotline" today. Unfortunately, these kinds of assertions rival the Watertown Daily Times in terms of credibility.

Now come on, lets try to be fair, balanced and reasonable. That's what's up in NY-23 today.

Doug Hoffman Smokes NY-23 & Leaves Competition in the Dust

Doug Hoffman just laid down the gauntlet and set the stage for his entrance into the NY-23 race with the release of a new poll showing him in a very comfortable lead among Republicans of all shapes and sizes from all across NY-23. It looks like there are only 4 candidates in the mix for NY-23 at this point. Within that group the numbers look incredibly favorable to Doug Hoffman in the primary and the general elections. While I haven’t taken sides in the primary or the general yet, I think these might be convincing reasons to reconsider a Hoffman candidacy if you are not already a supporter.

	4-way ballot	Hoffman v. Barclay	Hoffman v. Doheny
Hoffman	56%	56%	69%
Barclay	22%	24%	na
Doheny	1%	na	6%
Maroun	4%	na	na
Undecided	18%	19%	24%

Nearly 75% of the Republican primary voters believe Doug Hoffman should run again for Congress. There is no spinning that impressive figure, or his impressive showing as a Conservative on Line D last year. I don't remember a third-party candidate ever doing as well as Hoffman did last year in the last several decades, anywhere in the country.

And based on my knowledge of the poll numbers released today and taking into account Hoffman’s favorable/unfavorable ratings, his ID is worth upwards of $900,000 in 2010. In fact, Hoffman’s polling was so strong that 71% of Republican primary voters agree that if he runs with the Republican and Conservative lines he can beat Democrat Bill Owens – only 13% of respondents didn’t think Hoffman could win. It would be interesting to see how many Independents and Democrats think Hoffman could beat Owens if he had an R and a C at the end of his name next fall.

The fact that 58% of Republican primary voters prefer a conservative candidate over a moderate candidate is also very good news for Hoffman. The only thing better is that 62% consider themselves conservative and 64% say they are pro-life. These numbers bode well for Hoffman who is aligned with a clear majority of Republican primary voters who consider themselves conservative. As evidence of this, today’s poll shows that in the 4-way ballot Hoffman did 56 times better than Doheny and 2 ½ times better than Barclay.

These figures also put two of Hoffman’s potential primary opponents, Will Barclay and Matt Doheny who are both on record as pro-choice candidates, at a significant disadvantage on social issues. Even if one of these candidates were to drop out of the race they would still be in the minority among NY-23 Republican primary voters.

Barclay is clearly at a disadvantage because of his association with the failed New York State Legislature. Doheny, who has been in a defensive posture from the very beginning, has clear negatives due to his association with investment banking in New York City and he is in 4th place in today’s poll. What’s worse for Hoffman’s competitors is that both Barclay and Doheny would presumably be competing for voters in the same ideological wing of the GOP and also from the same geographic regions in Oswego and Jefferson Counties. It is still early, but I find it very hard to believe that any amount of money can make up that difference we see today, less than 10 months out from the Republican primary.

Paul Maroun, a conservative and the only other potential Republican candidate in NY-23 besides Hoffman with military experience, has not announced his intention to run for NY-23. There have been no signs of Maroun making a bid in NY-23 over the past several weeks and the shorter the schedule gets the harder it will be for Maroun to raise enough money to be competitive. My guess is that if he does not announce his intention to run for Congress, he will either support Hoffman or likely not endorse any other candidate. Either scenario makes it harder for a challenger to beat Hoffman for the Republican nomination as Maroun conservatives rally behind Hoffman.

Hoffman laid out an impressive case today that if Republicans in NY-23 really care about beating Bill Owens in 2010 they can do it by rallying political support around him. I suspect that if the Republican Party were to do so early they would greatly diminish the likelihood of an expensive and damaging Republican primary while simultaneously improving Republican chances of beating Owens this fall. If they don’t, all bets are off and NY-23 leans a Democrat hold.

	Doug Hoffman	Will Barclay	Matt Doheny	Paul Maroun
Favorable	63%	37%	2%	8%
Unfavorable	19%	11%	1%	3%
No Opinion	15%	26%	19%	16%
Never Heard of	3%	26%	78%	73%

The desperate spin being pushed by Barclay and Doheny on Newzjunky.com this afternoon is indicative of a politics of yesteryear, and an indictment that conservativism is alive and on the rise again this year. To put it bluntly, Barclay and Doheny's reaction to today's poll just reaffirmed that Hoffman is the only viable conservative in the race and the man to beat.

Neither potential challenger made even a vague reference to their desire to reach out to the conservative base of the party which will determine who the nominee will be, instead we read that "Hoffman got what he paid for" and saw another tired appeal to represent our "diverse" interests.