NY-23 GOP Chairs Realize It's Hoffman or Owens

Today the Watertown Daily Times has another piece up about Doug Hoffman having the Conservative line for the 2010 NY-23 congressional race. It's a great story for Doug, but I can't help but think the Watertown Daily Times is beating a dead horse. We have read this same story about 100 times over the past few months and it hasn't changed a thing -- Hoffman is running for Congress whether the local Republican leaders sitting in the Ivory Tower want him to or not. This fact was so obvious to Assemblyman Will Barclay that he dropped out of the race for NY-23 because he recognized he couldn't win so long as Doug Hoffman was at the table.

Nancy Martin, the St. Lawrence County GOP Chair, may be the smartest of the Republican bunch who understands that the Republican Party now has an important choice to make. Today she stated clearly that, "Our primary objective is to beat Bill Owens. We can't do that with a split between the Republican line and the Conservative line." And as long as people like Martin continue to concede defeat to Owens unless the Republican and Conservative lines are merged, that means the Republican Party only has two options.

The choice is clear: Republican leaders can run with Doug Hoffman and unite the Republican and Conservative parties to beat Democrat Bill Owens, or they can pick Matt Doheny, a moderate carpetbagger, and know they are handing a victory to Owens. It took poor Don Coon, the Jefferson County GOP Chair, until today to say what Republicans everywhere in NY-23 are thinking. He said simply, "Put Doug Hoffman on the line -- or lose... the fix is in." In fairness Donald Coon doesn't like his choice, but at least he is being honest in his assessment.

The Republican chairs know Hoffman is running and they can't legally stop him from doing so. That's a beautiful thing for American democracy. Does the Republican Party really have any business in telling someone whether they can or can't run as a Conservative anyways? Do the NY-23 Republican leaders want to be remembered as the clan who gave Owens his path to victory in 2010 after having voted for ObamaCare twice?

The holdouts like James Ellis, the Franklin County GOP chair, should just give up their crusade to tear down Hoffman by saying things like, "If you choose otherwise (i.e. Matt Doheny), Doug Hoffman is going to make sure the GOP candidate loses." That's some great spin by Ellis, but does he think voters are stupid? People know that what Ellis is really saying is, "If we pick someone other than Hoffman we are most likely going to lose and it will be all our fault, but I don't want to take the blame so I am setting up Hoffman to be the fall guy."

What Ellis needs to understand is that a lot of people want Hoffman to run as a Conservative if he doesn't run on both party lines. There are a lot of people who would be infuriated with Hoffman if he abandoned the very people who have donated, volunteered, and supported him over the last several months. It's not so hard to understand Hoffman's position when you think it through. It just makes you wonder if Ellis wants Owens to win because he has an ulterior motive.

What Martin and Coon are willing to admit, but what Ellis still refuses to accept, is that Doug Hoffman out-played them in this technical game we call politics. And because Hoffman has the people on his side, he has no reason to abandon them or the Conservative Party. Hoffman is looking to win by addition. Hoffman haters want to force him into losing (and by extension themselves) by subtraction. No one can credibly blame Hoffman for his decision because it is, in fact, the only winning strategy.

Those who don't understand it, or refuse to accept it, just need to get over themselves because the race will be won by Hoffman or Owens. And if the race for NY-23 turns into a 3-way race and you are unhappy with the result look no further than James Ellis and the other holdouts in his tiny corner. The choice is clear and Republicans get to make it.

Buggs Sent Will Barclay 20 Questions Today

Putting up a new poll on the sidebar: Do you think Assemblyman Barclay will answer our 20 interview questions?

In an appeal to start debate and discussion with the voters of NY-23, Will Barclay says he wants to be open. Today he said, "I cannot say it strongly enough... Candidates for the US Congress owe this to the people. It should not be viewed as an option - it's an obligation... Let's give the people the real thing for a change" (Barclay for Congress Press Release, 2/25/10).

Matt Doheny's Special Ties to Wall Street Money is a Double-Edged Sword

The Politico has an interesting top page story about New York Insurgents Standing up for Wall Street. It's an interesting read and needless to say, there are clear political advantages and disadvantages to being on the side of Wall Street in 2010. If you are on the side of big bankers and powerful Wall Street attorney's you can pretty much count on some $2,400 checks to your campaign committee. Ben Smith of the Politico goes to say that, "The warm words for Wall Street have one clear political benefit: Money." Conversely, if you are against the big banks you can use that message to fight for the middle class and win populist support.

And in the race for NY-23 there has certainly been some discussion about campaign contributions coming in from Wall Street to candidate Matthew Doheny, who announced his 600K war chest on NewzJunky.com this week. In fairness, I can't say how much of that 600K is from Wall Street because it has been written that Doheny loaned his campaign at least 650K so far. But it is true that Doheny has only listed only three reportable donors on his FEC report with an address within the boundaries of NY-23 -- all of them were from Jefferson County.

What I do know is that in the summer of 2009 Dohey raised about $190,000 from individuals for the Republican primary. However, he returned all the donations he sought in July of 2009 after Dede Scozzafava won the nod from the GOP county chairs. Now having spent $175,000, Doheny has garnered roughly 2% name recognition across the district and is going through an incredible financial burn-rate that is usually reserved for the final weeks of a campaign.

A Doheny insider who is close to the action and asked not to be named for this report wrote to me that the campaign's goal is to intimidate Assemblyman Will Barclay out of the race with big name consultants, endorsements, and heavy financial backing out of New York City. But the aide said that some within the campaign are worried that Barclay won't fold if he sees Doheny's cash on hand number dwindle before the race even starts, ruining Doheny's strategy to take Barclay out of the race by mid-to-late spring. Hence the reason for Doheny's statement last week on funding. The source stated that Doheny hopes to have his cash-on-hand number above $1 million by the end of June in time for the second FEC report of 2010. And the campaign is working under the assumption that Doheny will have to loan himself another 400-600K to get there, putting his total personal investment in the race at over $1 million. In other words, he is trying to force Barclay out by buying the race early.

The unnamed source said that Doheny's willingness to loan more money to his campaign is dependent on how much Barclay raises next quarter. The source also said that many on the campaign were excited at the prospect of bringing on Cary Brick, Congressman McHugh's former Chief of Staff, but were also nervous that his high price tag might hurt their chances of keeping the cash-on-hand high enough to scare away young Mr. Barclay. But the all-in strategy is what Doheny is banking on because he recognizes his weak support among the grassroots across NY-23, even in his own backyard. Rumor has it that a dozen plus prominent Jefferson County Republican Committee members are set to announce their endorsement for Barclay in the next few weeks.

But still Doheny's communications team is pushing their candidate's image as a young man who pulled himself up from his bootstraps to make something of himself in the big city and who returned home because of his desire to enter public service. They frequently cite that the young attorney/finance guru drives a old beat up 94 Ford Explorer named "Bessie." It's a strategy meant to distract voters from his connection to Wall Street, an image the campaign is fearful may hurt at the polls. The Doheny source mentioned a Quinnipiac University poll from 2009 that found 79% of all New York voters backed taxes against those who earn more than $1 million a year. Worried that in 2010 voter sentiment against Wall Street is even higher now as people on main street remain frustrated with the current recession and double digit unemployment numbers, Doheny's team has sought to distance their candidate from his past.

However, Doheny's Wall Street connects will likely bring him some easy campaign cash, which will help in catching up in the name ID game. A quick glance at the FEC website shows that Doheny collected over 20K from Deutsche Bank last summer. Of the 120 individuals who have given to Doheny, over a quarter were finance lawyers, half of Doheny's donors listed addresses among the richest zip codes of New York City and an overwhelming majority were involved in the financial sector and private investments. But one of the most interesting highlights is that most of the donors on Doheny's report were consistent donors for Democrat backed organizations and powerful liberal members of the Democratic Party.

For example, Raj Bhattacharyya, who gave the maximum contribution allowed by law to Doheny also gave to Senators Gillibrand, Casey, Obama, Clinton, Specter, Feingold, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and several liberal Democratic house members from New York. Another donor, Michael Curreri gave to Representative Maffei and Senate Banking Committee Chairman, Chris Dodd. Josh Easterly of Goldman Sachs who donated to the DNC and President Obama also gave to Doheny. Doheny donor Mayar Lakhani, another Deutsche Bank employee, gave to Obama, Clinton, Menendez, Gillibrand, Specter, and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recruiter, Representative Steve Israel. Doheny even took money from two employees at the Blackstone Group whose CEO, Steven Schwarzman, recently lashed out at US Government officials and threatened to tie up credit and loans unless they get their way politically.

In addition, Doheny found almost 10% of his donors from the law firm, Quinn Emmanuel Urquhard LLP. That law firm happens to represent funds and fund managers before the US Security and Exchange Commission, as well as other government bodies in the US and abroad. According to their website, "Quinn Emanuel's White Collar Criminal Defense and Internal Investigations Practice Group represents prominent domestic and foreign corporations, special committees and boards of directors, as well as individuals, in high profile criminal investigations, administrative enforcement hearings, trials and appeals... attorneys in this practice group are regularly retained to represent witnesses, subjects and targets of grand jury investigations, enforcement actions and criminal proceedings in industries ranging from securities, defense, and banking, to health care, entertainment, pharmaceuticals, and technology." Some might question after getting almost $16,000 from the law firm's attorneys that should Doheny win a seat in Congress, he might use his political influence to help QEU's clients as they come before the SEC. Other notable donors listed TARP recipients, and big financial firms like Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Bank of America as their employers. The list of big money makers from the New York, New Jersey and Connecticut goes on and on.

The real question for Doheny then becomes two-fold. First, is Doheny beholden to Wall Street interests and will he use his political influence, if elected, to benefit his donors and their clients? Second, why are so many of Doheny's close friends, associates and campaign donors so fond of the DNC, DSCC, DCCC, Obama, Feingold, Clinton, Gillibrand, Dodd, Specter, Israel, Richardson, Perriello, Menendez, Kerry, Casey, Arcuri, Maffei and others of the same ilk? Is it because Doheny has promised to be a strong voice for Wall Street over Main Street interests?

Can Doheny continue to file FEC reports without donors from NY-23 and remain relevant in a district that is suffering from the excesses of big bankers on Wall Street using TARP money to pay mega-bonuses to their corporate and financial heads? Will Doheny make a statement on his position on earmarks, the stimulus, TARP, bonuses on Wall Street and Obama's TARP tax proposal?

Why doesn't Doheny have a campaign website that lists his position on critical issues of importance to people across NY-23? Will Doheny continue to self-finance his race in an effort to scare Will Barclay back into his assembly seat? Will anyone in the mainstream media look at where Doheny's money is coming from and ask the tough questions?

The only answer we do know right now is that Doheny's Wall Street connections are a double-edged sword in his bid to become the Repubilcan nominee for NY-23.

Mayor Graham Still Can't ID Me

A few weeks ago Mayor Graham speculated that I was Scott Gray and he must have figured out by now that he was wrong. Today Mayor Graham asks if What's Up NY-23 is a "house organ for the Hoffman campaign" because of a "clear effort to cast Doheny and Barclay as pro choice (aka Dede clones)?" First let me say very clearly that this is not a pro-Hoffman blog. I just happened to provide commentary based on a publicly released poll that is based on fact and political analysis.

Second, the fact that Mayor Graham is already trying to spin or defend the assumption that both Doheny and Barclay are in fact moderates raises questions of its own. Now I'm not saying that being a moderate is good or bad. It just is what it is. If two moderates are running against one conservative, clearly they are going to split the vote and leave the conservatives with one place to go. That was the true intention of my blog post. The same would be true if there were two conservatives running against one moderate. Conservatives would split the vote and leave the moderate with the prize of winning the primary.

On that note, if you read my blog post from yesterday you will see that I never made any claim that either candidate was a Dede clone. For one, they are both better looking and neither supports card check legislation, homosexual marriage or is seeking the Working Families Party nod as far as I am aware. I wrote yesterday in the first paragraph of my post that I have not yet taken sides in either the primary or the general election.

On the issue of both Barclay and Doheny being pro-choice, however, I think that point is rather obvious. For better or worse, both Doheny and Barclay are, in fact, pro-choice Republicans. Neither potential candidate has ever claimed to be pro-life and neither have refuted numerous media reports that they are pro-choice. When 64% of Republican primary voters describe themselves as pro-life, that creates a wedge that these candidates will have to deal with in their own way.

As for Barclay his support for abortion is on record. In 2006 the National Organization of Women gave him a 100% pro-choice score for his favorable abortion votes.

Regarding Doheny, Sal Gentile with the Capitol Report, a must-read paper of the Albany government and political community, wrote as recently as December 15th that he is, "a pro-choice Manhattan lawyer who has already channeled as much as half a million dollars into his campaign account, has won the favor of more moderate Republicans because he would not have to depend on outside interest groups for money." Political IV said, Republicans at the VFW in Gouverneur on July 14th of last year were "caught off guard with his position on the hot button pro-life versus pro-choice issue." The Riehl World Blog also called Doheny "pro-choice." Doheny has never disputed this record even though he has been prone to release statements ad nauseam anytime another candidate says anything or puts out a statement. He has not corrected the record yet, so I have to assume he is pro-choice according to these reports and what he is personally saying to people in NY-23.

But the important thing I want to get across is that the claim that I am somehow trying to influence the election in Hoffman's favor is short-sighted. If I really wanted to sabotage other candidates I would write about how both Barclay and Doheny think they can win this election the old fashioned way -- they both think they can buy off the people's votes. The Barclay family, I presume, has all sorts of money to contribute to this race. And Doheny gave $10,000 to the New York Federal Republican Campaign Committee less than three months ago. He also gave his own campaign a half a million in 2009. I don't talk about these types of things generally though because I'm not into that type of thing.

Here at What's Up NY-23 we are interested in the issues and real news, not insinuations. With that said, I object to the mayor's claim that this is a Hoffman blog. The mayor's question is comparable to someone questioning whether he took money from Doheny to write favorable things about that candidate on his blog and to also say favorable things about Doheny's vehicle on "the Hotline" today. Unfortunately, these kinds of assertions rival the Watertown Daily Times in terms of credibility.

Now come on, lets try to be fair, balanced and reasonable. That's what's up in NY-23 today.

Doug Hoffman Smokes NY-23 & Leaves Competition in the Dust

Doug Hoffman just laid down the gauntlet and set the stage for his entrance into the NY-23 race with the release of a new poll showing him in a very comfortable lead among Republicans of all shapes and sizes from all across NY-23. It looks like there are only 4 candidates in the mix for NY-23 at this point. Within that group the numbers look incredibly favorable to Doug Hoffman in the primary and the general elections. While I haven’t taken sides in the primary or the general yet, I think these might be convincing reasons to reconsider a Hoffman candidacy if you are not already a supporter.

	4-way ballot	Hoffman v. Barclay	Hoffman v. Doheny
Hoffman	56%	56%	69%
Barclay	22%	24%	na
Doheny	1%	na	6%
Maroun	4%	na	na
Undecided	18%	19%	24%

Nearly 75% of the Republican primary voters believe Doug Hoffman should run again for Congress. There is no spinning that impressive figure, or his impressive showing as a Conservative on Line D last year. I don't remember a third-party candidate ever doing as well as Hoffman did last year in the last several decades, anywhere in the country.

And based on my knowledge of the poll numbers released today and taking into account Hoffman’s favorable/unfavorable ratings, his ID is worth upwards of $900,000 in 2010. In fact, Hoffman’s polling was so strong that 71% of Republican primary voters agree that if he runs with the Republican and Conservative lines he can beat Democrat Bill Owens – only 13% of respondents didn’t think Hoffman could win. It would be interesting to see how many Independents and Democrats think Hoffman could beat Owens if he had an R and a C at the end of his name next fall.

The fact that 58% of Republican primary voters prefer a conservative candidate over a moderate candidate is also very good news for Hoffman. The only thing better is that 62% consider themselves conservative and 64% say they are pro-life. These numbers bode well for Hoffman who is aligned with a clear majority of Republican primary voters who consider themselves conservative. As evidence of this, today’s poll shows that in the 4-way ballot Hoffman did 56 times better than Doheny and 2 ½ times better than Barclay.

These figures also put two of Hoffman’s potential primary opponents, Will Barclay and Matt Doheny who are both on record as pro-choice candidates, at a significant disadvantage on social issues. Even if one of these candidates were to drop out of the race they would still be in the minority among NY-23 Republican primary voters.

Barclay is clearly at a disadvantage because of his association with the failed New York State Legislature. Doheny, who has been in a defensive posture from the very beginning, has clear negatives due to his association with investment banking in New York City and he is in 4th place in today’s poll. What’s worse for Hoffman’s competitors is that both Barclay and Doheny would presumably be competing for voters in the same ideological wing of the GOP and also from the same geographic regions in Oswego and Jefferson Counties. It is still early, but I find it very hard to believe that any amount of money can make up that difference we see today, less than 10 months out from the Republican primary.

Paul Maroun, a conservative and the only other potential Republican candidate in NY-23 besides Hoffman with military experience, has not announced his intention to run for NY-23. There have been no signs of Maroun making a bid in NY-23 over the past several weeks and the shorter the schedule gets the harder it will be for Maroun to raise enough money to be competitive. My guess is that if he does not announce his intention to run for Congress, he will either support Hoffman or likely not endorse any other candidate. Either scenario makes it harder for a challenger to beat Hoffman for the Republican nomination as Maroun conservatives rally behind Hoffman.

Hoffman laid out an impressive case today that if Republicans in NY-23 really care about beating Bill Owens in 2010 they can do it by rallying political support around him. I suspect that if the Republican Party were to do so early they would greatly diminish the likelihood of an expensive and damaging Republican primary while simultaneously improving Republican chances of beating Owens this fall. If they don’t, all bets are off and NY-23 leans a Democrat hold.

	Doug Hoffman	Will Barclay	Matt Doheny	Paul Maroun
Favorable	63%	37%	2%	8%
Unfavorable	19%	11%	1%	3%
No Opinion	15%	26%	19%	16%
Never Heard of	3%	26%	78%	73%

The desperate spin being pushed by Barclay and Doheny on Newzjunky.com this afternoon is indicative of a politics of yesteryear, and an indictment that conservativism is alive and on the rise again this year. To put it bluntly, Barclay and Doheny's reaction to today's poll just reaffirmed that Hoffman is the only viable conservative in the race and the man to beat.

Neither potential challenger made even a vague reference to their desire to reach out to the conservative base of the party which will determine who the nominee will be, instead we read that "Hoffman got what he paid for" and saw another tired appeal to represent our "diverse" interests.

Hoffman Still the Favorite Son Among NYS Conservatives

Today I am very pleased to be able to bring you a short interview with the Chairman of the New York State Conservative Party, Mike Long. You can see their party website, www.cpnys.org, for additional information on the NYS Conservative Party. Chairman Long's answers to our questions provide a good sense of what his party is about and where they are moving.

I was really excited to do this interview because I had heard some political spectators and insiders say they believed that Mike Long was done supporting Doug Hoffman for whatever reason late last month. Those Republican insiders argued to me on multiple occasions that the Conservatives and Mike Long would likely abandon Hoffman and dangle the Conservative line out for the highest Republican bidder. Not knowing who to trust I went to the find out from the horse's mouth myself and it sounds pretty obvious to me now, based on my interview documented below, that Mike Long is serious about his continued support for Doug Hoffman. He says the Conservative line in NY-23 is Hoffman's for the taking if he wants it, which really forces Will Barclay, Matt Doheny and other potential candidates into a corner to compete for a more narrow demographic of Republican voters and certainly whatever conservative defectors they can pinch off.

Remember Doheny said back in mid-December that, "I'm absolutely going to actively seek the Republican and Independence and Conservative party lines and we'll be working diligently to maximize my chances of getting those lines." There is no doubt that this is big news that might further entice Hoffman to closely consider another run for NY-23. If Hoffman enters the race the Conservative line will be taken. And for now we have to assume that Congressman Bill Owens will maintain the Independence line. So now it looks like Doheny's strategy to aggressively reach out to moderates will have to be very focused and successful in order for him to have a shot at the Republican nomination this year. While I am the first to admit that this news doesn't fall into the same category as the national "Game Change" news, it is still quite relevant and interesting news for local politicos as well as all other fans of NY-23 politics like me. Beyond the explicit statements of support for Hoffman, Chairman Long also talks about Scozzafava, the Republican Party and his own party's goals, specifically mentioning plans to spearhead a campaign to cap state spending and tax cuts. Now onto the juice of the interview!

Buggs Buddy Question: Chairman Long, thank you very much for agreeing to taking the time to participate in our interview. Now Chairman, I don't mean to say you didn't have a great deal of influence over New York politics before 2009, but your influence has expanded greatly in upstate New York after recruiting and supporting Doug Hoffman in NY-23 this past fall. Can you tell us a little bit about your start in politics and why you decided to become a conservative rather than a Republican?

NYS Conservative Party Chairman Mike Long Response: I started in politics in 1964, in the Barry Goldwater Presidential Campaign. I initially was a registered republican when I witnessed the lack of support for then Senator Goldwater by the New York Republican Party. Both my wife and I registered conservative and became active in the NYS Conservative Party.

BB: It seems like the Republican Party in NY-23 has some real problems it needs to work out if it wants to be successful in 2010. What direction do you think the local Republican establishment and the county chairs should take in managing the competing interests between moderates and conservatives? Can the Scozzafava's and the Hoffman's of the GOP coexist? And if you want to answer this -- is the New York State Conservative Party committed to supporting Hoffman in 2010 if he decides to run, or would you be open to supporting a different candidate?

ML: I think the republican establishment has to understand that truly moderates and conservatives can work together and co-exist. The problem that the republican establishment has to understand is that their republican membership, namely the rank-and-file, are moderate to conservative, not liberals. If Doug Hoffman decides to run in 2010 you can rest assure the NYS Conservative Party believes he deserves the opportunity to run again and will support him.

BB: Very interesting to hear that commitment from you. What are the top three issues for your party in 2010? What do you hope to accomplish - your goals - in 2010? Is it to move Republicans towards the Conservative line or winning with conservative candidates outright or something else?

ML: To win four to five congressional districts with conservative republicans including and especially Doug Hoffman in the 23rd CD if he chooses to run. To regain control of the NYS Senate with conservative republicans. Third, to spearhead a campaign to cap state spending and tax cuts.

BB: Has the Conservative Party changed since Hoffman beat Scozzafava and came close to winning in NY-23? If so, in what ways? And how do you respond to critics who say that the Conservative Party often plays a spoiler role in many New York elections?

ML: Doug Hoffman's campaign in the 23rd CD re-energized the conservative party statewide and clearly energized the conservative movement throughout the nation. In regards to the critics who claim that the conservative party often plays a spoiler role in New York elections, this couldn't be further from the truth. In last year's election the republican candidate, Dede Scozzafaza, was totally out of step philosophically with the rank-and-file members of her own party, therefore, playing the role of not only being the spoiler but after the republican congressional committee spent $1 million on her campaign she endorsed the democrat. She was the true spoiler in the race.

BB: What candidates or local leaders are you most excited about and who do you see as rising stars of the Conservative and Republican Parties in Upstate New York?

ML: There are many local leaders and activists in the conservative and republican parties and members of the tea party that will become the next wave of leaders. Too many to name any individuals.

BB: What is the best political advice you have ever been given?

ML: The best political advice I was ever given was by my wife who advised me to run for State Chairman of the New York State Conservative Party.

BB: What do you predict in Dede Scozzafava's future? And do you think the Republican Assembly leadership have done anything different once she endorsed Bill Owens for Congress?

ML: I'm not in the business of predicting any individuals future, nor do I want to involve myself in giving advice to the Republican Assembly leadership.

BB: Thank you for your time. Is there anything else you would like our readers to know about you or the Republican Party in NY-23 that might be of interest to our readers?

ML: Thank you for the opportunity for this online interview.

BB: Best of luck to you Chairman Long, and thanks again! It has been a real pleasure and I am proud we had the rare opportunity to interview you. You can learn more about the New York State Conservative Party through their website, www.cpnys.org.